What could Jeff McNeil’s ceiling be with the NY Mets in 2025?

To say that Jeff McNeil's 2024 season with the New York Mets was anything but smooth is an understatement. Plagued by injuries, McNeil struggled to find his rhythm in 2024. A striking 4.7% rise in his strikeout rate and an 18% drop in on-base percentage (OBP) since his 2022 batting title reign highlighted McNeil's struggles in 2024. His alarming .238 batting average sent shockwaves through Mets fans this past season.

As the 2025 season approaches, McNeil’s at-bats may not be locked in. The Mets have made significant strides in bolstering their position player depth, creating healthy competition. While Luisangel Acuña probably needs more time to settle in, if he pops off at the plate, it could push McNeil back into a true platoon role—a spot he’s worked hard to escape in recent years.

Can Jeff McNeil reclaim his short-ball, quick-handed dominance, or was 2022 his peak with the Mets?

The argument can be made that Jeff's struggles began long before his injury, and many fans would agree. Looking back to 2022, McNeil was a true short-ball hitter. He excelled against the shift, as it didn’t matter where fielders were placed—he consistently put the ball in play in every part of the field.

The 2023 shift ban had a significant impact on McNeil, and to his credit, he made an effort to adjust. However, making adjustments mid-season is challenging for any player, as they have to experiment with new approaches in real-time, often with mixed results. As the saying goes, “Try again. Fail again. Fail better.” Neither the Mets nor McNeil could have predicted how much the shift change would affect his game. The flying squirrel endured a rough June and July but managed to bounce back with a stellar second half.

Mets fans may have panicked during McNeil's slump in 2024, but realistically, his performance only dipped below the team's batting average for two months—May and June. This trend is consistent when comparing his on-base percentage to the team's overall. In May, the entire Mets lineup struggled, with Jeff just facing a rougher stretch than his teammates.

What does this mean for McNeil going into 2025? 

It can be easy to take a baseball player’s season's basic stats at face value. However, putting them into context on a month-by-month or series-by-series basis, and taking into account the team culture, momentum, and performance, is an important aspect of analysis.

Was 2024 Jeff's best season? Not necessarily, however, it was a rollercoaster of a season for the Mets in general, adjusting to new coaching and management, and accounting for injuries. McNeil deserves the benefit of the doubt going into 2025, as he has the potential to return to peak form. Many of the changes were not fully in his control, and allowing him to fall into a rhythm, instead of trying to push him into being a pull hitter, could work wonders.