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The Kirby Yates deal is overrated
The Mets need some relievers, and while Kirby Yates had an outstanding rebound season in 2024 with the Texas Rangers, he should not be one of the names they went after. Yates had by far his best season since his days with the San Diego Padres. Along with staying healthy, he performed extremely well. But his age and underlying numbers lead to some question marks.
Yates pitched 61.2 frames, working to a 1.17 ERA, 2.50 FIP, and 0.83 WHIP. He struck out over a third of opponents with a 35.9% K% while holding opponents to a 0.44 HR/9 rate. The veteran closer was great at limiting hard contact with an 87.5 MPH exit velocity (top 81st percentile) and 4.1% barrel rate (top 95th percentile). But Yates struggled with free passes, handing one out to 11.8% of opponents.
Yates’ season was fantastic, but some red flags need to be addressed. For one, he had a .168 batting average on balls in play. Sure, inducing soft contact at the rate Yates was will likely lead to a low BABIP. But that is only the third time in the 2000s a reliever has put up a BABIP below .180 in 60+ innings. Even pitchers who were just as good, if not better than Yates at limiting hard contact in 2024, like Hunter Brown, Max Fried, and Chris Sale, had BABIPs above .280.
Yates is also getting up there in age. 2025 will be his age-38 season. In terms of his overall stuff, his age is starting to show. Yates had a 104 Stuff+ mark in 2023 with the Atlanta Braves. This past season with the Texas Rangers, he saw that fall to 97. Yates located his pitches better in ‘24 but is still approaching 40. Only 11 relief pitchers since the start of 2010 have pitched at least 60 innings with a 120+ ERA+ in their age-38 season or older. $13 million is a gamble on an older relief pitcher.