Injured Mets trade deadline pickup is no lock to return in 2025

We saw the best and the worst of what Paul Blackburn had to offer the New York Mets. A handful of quality starts but also some beatings to put a dent in his numbers, the lone starting pitcher added by this ball club at the trade deadline saw his year conclude early. A spinal procedure will keep him out for a little while longer, making him an unlikely candidate to be on the team’s Opening Day roster.

Blackburn made just 5 starts for the Mets, turning in a 1-2 record and 5.18 ERA. His tenure began with two 6-inning, 1 earned run performances on the road against two of the worst teams in baseball, the Los Angeles Angels and Colorado Rockies. He followed it up with a dud against his former Oakland Athletics teammates, another 6-inning performance with 1 earned run versus the Miami Marlins, and finally an abbreviated awful performance versus the San Diego Padres where he exited with the injury that has kept him out since August 23.

Arbitration eligible through next year, picking Blackburn up at the trade deadline fit as more than just a simple rental. If things went well, he could be a consideration to join what is expected to be a six-man rotation next year. Things didn’t go well. They didn’t really go at all.

The Paul Blackburn injury complicates where he belongs with the Mets next year

Five starts is never enough to know what to expect from a pitcher. Three impressive ones and two ugly ones have Blackburn’s numbers looking unimpressive. But that’s kind of what he has been in his career. Even as an All-Star in 2022 when he logged a career-high 111.1 innings, Blackburn was only 7-6 with a 4.28 ERA.

One thing Blackburn did well with the Mets in the limited action was soft contact. An average exit velocity of 85.2mph against him and a hard-hit percentage of 28.2% both hit career lows. It’s a shame we didn’t get to see if this was a case of figuring something out or the result of a small sample.

Those numbers are deceiving, though. A slash line of .320/.374/.495 was posted against him in the limited time he spent with the Mets. A lifetime 4.85 ERA doesn’t inspire much confidence either.

With Blackburn, the first decision the Mets will have to make is whether he is tendered a contract or not. Projected to make $4.4 million in his final year before reaching free agency, it’s not a large enough sum to scare off the Mets. What does raise a stop sign is how many better options the Mets should explore.

Next year’s rotation has a flashing neon vacancy sign. Kodai Senga. David Peterson. Four more spots open. There will be no Christian Scott. At least one of Sean Manaea and Luis Severino should be re-signed. Was Tylor Megill’s impressive finish enough to consider him for the sixth spot in the rotation? With minor league options available to him and not Blackburn, it’s something to weigh.

Blackburn never got his chance to storm the postseason in orange and blue. One option is to tender Blackburn a deal to protect themselves from missing in free agency. Blackburn might not be a horrific choice to slide into a long man role out of the bullpen.

So much has been left unanswered with Blackburn. Even if he was available for the Opening Day roster, he doesn’t quite move the needle enough for a team in need of some big starting pitching arms.