Billy Amick has a major flaw and recent NY Mets history tells us they won't fix it

David Stearns finally fired the starting gun on the New York Mets' long-anticipated fire sale, shipping out veteran reliever A.J. Minter to Minnesota in exchange for two prospects: Bruin Agbayani and Billy Amick. The former is the son of former Mets outfielder Benny Agbayani, while the latter was the Twins' second-round pick in the 2024 MLB Draft.

It's hardly a revelatory package, but two players with upside is about all you can ask for in return for a rental bullpen arm. It sets a precedent for the team to move other relievers like Brooks Raley and Luke Weaver while also adding a jolt of new talent into a couple of levels in the farm system.

If there is a nit to pick here, it's that Amick, despite possessing a blue-chip power tool, is a deeply flawed player. The soon-to-be 24-year-old has hit a ton of home runs in Double-A this season, but his strikeout habit is reminiscent of other Mets prospects who haven't been able to get over the hump.

Ryan Clifford's Triple-A struggles are a worrying trend Billy Amick will have to overcome to make some noise in New York

Let's start with the good: Amick has 60-grade raw power. The guy just crushes baseballs, as evidenced by his 23 home runs, .482 slugging percentage, and .265 ISO this season. He's also a savant at pulling the ball in the air, doing so on 28.8% of his batted-ball events, which ranks in the 92nd percentile in Double-A.

Carrying tools are an important part of the prospect puzzle, since they give a player something to fall back on whenever they start struggling against a new level of competition. That's exactly what's happening with Amick this year, as his power production has led him to an above-average 104 wRC+ in his first taste of Double-A ball.

The problem is that his profile loses a lot of steam elsewhere. His hit tool grades around 30 on the 80-point scale, which is well below average. Thus, he's striking out 28.5% of the time, with a disastrous 38.5% whiff rate (eighth percentile) to match. Amick is only making contact on 71.4% of the pitches in the zone that he swings at -- the Double-A average is around 82.5%.

If you're wondering why he isn't considered a top prospect, there's your reason.

The Mets do have experience with this type of prospect, though their success in developing them has been limited. Ryan Clifford is the most obvious example, as he's also an elite power hitter but working with a similar 73.9% in-zone contact rate. His strikeout issues are even worse (36.4% K-rate this season), but he's also a better prospect with a supposedly better hit tool than Amick. It paints a worrying picture, especially since the newcomer is yet to play at the Triple-A level.

Other recent examples include Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Ronny Mauricio, none of whom were as dependent on power as Amick but still can't crack the code in the big leagues. The Mets just haven't been able to get players of this archetype over the "Quad-A" hump. Is a similar fate awaiting Amick in his new organization?

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