Grading the NY Mets starting rotation if the season began today

The New York Mets have assembled a rotation with potential, but questions remain about its overall strength. After a season where the Mets' pitching lab successfully altered the mechanics of Sean Manaea and Luis Severino and revamped Reed Garrett's pitch mix, David Stearns has replicated this approach this offseason.

A rotation featuring Kodai Senga and bolstered by additions like Frankie Montas, the recently converted starter Clay Holmes, former top prospect Griffin Canning, and David Peterson presents a mix of talent and uncertainty. While this group possesses impressive individual skills and potential, concerns remain about their ability to perform at a high level throughout the season.

Stearns' risky offseason pitching strategy: overconfidence or calculated gamble?

Stearns's strategy falls on his belief that long-term investment in pitchers is risky due to increasing injury rates and age-related decline. To mitigate this risk, he's established a pitching lab to optimize pitcher performance through mechanical adjustments and repertoire changes.

However, this offseason, Stearns seems to have taken this strategy to the extreme. He's taken significant risks by converting a reliever into a starter, acquiring a pitcher with a history of injuries, and betting on a former top prospect who has yet to fulfill his potential in the majors.

Kodai Senga has been a revelation since his debut, impressing with his electric stuff and elite strikeout ability. His splitter has been particularly dominant, generating swings and misses with ease. However, Senga has struggled with injuries and inconsistency, particularly when returning from injury.

Clay Holmes' transition from the bullpen to the rotation is a significant question mark. While his arsenal possesses the potential for elite performance, adjusting to the increased workload could pose challenges, even though he previously pitched as a starter in the minor leagues.

Frankie Montas has struggled to regain his pre-injury form. His command has been inconsistent, and his once-dominant stuff hasn’t been as sharp. The Mets will hope he can find his rhythm and return to his previous level of performance.

David Peterson has been a reliable arm, providing length and consistency, especially in the last stretch of the regular season and playoff. While he lacks overpowering stuff, he effectively mixes his pitches and keeps hitters off balance.

Finally, Griffin Canning has shown flashes of brilliance, but his injury history and inconsistency have hindered his progress. When healthy, he can be a valuable asset in the back of the rotation, but his stuff has never been as good as advertised.

For a team that is in win-now mode after last season's playoff run and the signing of Juan Soto, this rotation's lack of consistency and stability raises concerns about the team's ability to contend for a World Series title next season. If this is the Mets' rotation for 2025, Stearns may need to focus on building an elite bullpen to mitigate potential issues arising from injuries, inconsistency, and poor performance among the starters.