Grading the last 5 NY Mets first-round draft picks

The New York Mets' scouting department has long been lauded for its diligent work in identifying promising talent through the MLB draft, laying the groundwork for the team's future. However, recent financial decisions have significantly impacted the Mets' draft strategy and access to top-tier prospects.

Over the past two seasons, the team has faced penalties for exceeding the final threshold of the luxury tax, resulting in their first-round pick being pushed back 10 spots. This penalty is particularly evident in the upcoming draft, where the Mets will only have two picks among the top 138, with their first selection not coming until the 38th pick, effectively leaving them without a true first-round pick. This unique situation makes a retrospective look at their recent first-round selections even more pertinent, as we grade the last five top picks for the orange and blue.

Recent Mets first-round report cards

The Mets selected Pete Crow-Armstrong (PCA) with the 19th overall pick in the 2020 draft. In a move that still stings many Mets fans, the team ultimately traded the promising young outfielder to the Chicago Cubs as part of the deal that brought Javier Baez to New York. Immediately this season, PCA has blossomed into everything he was projected to be and much more. An elite defensive center fielder with a knack for highlight-reel plays, an excellent baserunner who wreaks havoc on the basepaths, and a hitter who has emerged as a perennial candidate for the National League MVP.

In the 2021 draft, the Mets took a calculated risk, selecting Kumar Rocker with their tenth overall pick. Rocker showcased immense swing-and-miss potential at the collegiate level, but also presented concerns regarding his command and, critically, his injury history. It was this latter issue that ultimately led the Mets to not offer him a signing bonus after the draft deadline passed, a decision that allowed them to gain an extra compensatory pick in the following year's draft. Rocker was subsequently selected with the third overall pick by the Texas Rangers in 2022. As of today, given his subsequent injury setbacks and bad performance at the MLB level, it appears the Mets may have dodged a significant bullet.

Without a doubt, the Mets' worst first-round pick over the last five seasons has been Kevin Parada. The Georgia Tech catcher, a program renowned for producing accomplished backstops like Jason Varitek and Matt Wieters, was selected with the 11th overall pick but has largely failed to live up to the high expectations set for him. His weak arm strength, noticeable deterioration in his catching ability, and a struggle to produce consistently at the plate have caused the once-promising youngster to fall precipitously in the organization's prospect rankings. Currently, his value is considered low enough that he's viewed as merely a depth piece for the team, far from the impact player anticipated with such a high pick.

In the 2023 draft, the Mets experienced their first penalty for exceeding the luxury tax threshold, pushing their initial selection back to the 32nd overall pick. With this selection, the Mets opted for Colin Houck, an infielder lauded for his raw power and excellent bat speed, with evaluators initially classifying this pick as a potential steal. However, Houck's professional career has not started as hoped. He has struggled with severe swing-and-miss and contact issues, leading to a significant drop in his organizational ranking. Previously the Mets' #7 prospect, he currently sits at #30, indicating a substantial need for development and adjustment to professional pitching.

In last year's draft, the Mets selected Carson Benge with the 19th overall pick. Benge projects to be an above-average hitter in MLB, primarily due to his advanced ability to consistently make hard contact with high exit velocity. Defensively, Benge possesses an elite arm with above-average velocity, a tool that bodes well for his future in center field early in his career. Benge has quickly ascended the prospect ranks within the organization and is currently rated as the Mets' #3 prospect, also earning a spot among MLB Pipeline's top 100 prospects.