Return on Investment chart makes former NY Mets GM look like a money burning mess

It hasn’t been the cleanest job for the New York Mets. Whether it’s a general manager or president of baseball operations, the person sitting in the seat to make the largest player decisions have come up short more often than not in recent years. We can appreciate some of the things they’ve done. We’re still living through the David Stearns era with only a few remnants leftover from what Brodie Van Wagenen accomplished (or didn’t).

The biggest decision-maker between those two eras, who lasted more than a few months, was Billy Eppler. The architect of the 2022 and 2023 Mets, he had two very different results.

A chart shared earlier this month on X via FanGraphs comes to a definitive conclusion on Eppler’s career. Using both signings he made with the Mets and Los Angeles Angels, he looks like an all-time mess. Here's a run down of a few of the players we'll be discussing:

Positives
Brandon Nimmo $18.75MM ROI
Tommy Pham $9.5MM ROI
Mark Canha $7.5MM ROI
Rene Rivera $5.3MM ROI (Angels)
Adam Ottavino $5.1MM ROI (2022 deal)
Negatives
Jose Quintana -$5.4MM ROI
Kodai Senga -$30MM ROI
Starling Marte -$41MM ROI
Zack Cozart -$49.2MM ROI (Angels)
Justin Verlander -$54.2MM ROI
Max Scherzer -$72MM ROI
Edwin Diaz -$77.3MM ROI*
Anthony Rendon -$214.6MM ROI

Billy Eppler looks like he cost the Mets and Angels a lot more than realized

Notably absent from the list is Shohei Ohtani whose status as an amateur free agent at the time restricted how much he could actually pay him. His contract was largely based on a more traditional situation with arbitration and not at the same level we would think of those who’ve followed him here from Japan such as Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

The list is imperfect in some other ways, Edwin Diaz (-$77.3 million ROI) valued for his full 5 years with only two seasons of actual play included. Only Anthony Rendon (-$214.6 million ROI) has a worse total return on investment. Nevertheless, the rest of the evidence against Eppler is damning.

Brandon Nimmo ($18.75 million ROI) being the best return on investment is the first hint as his contract always seemed a bit overvalued. This chart does provide a different perspective. Tommy Pham, Mark Canha, and the 2022 version of Adam Ottavino in the green alongside, of all people, Rene Rivera is a short list.

The list is further complicated because the Mets bailed on Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander early by boldly paying a large part of their contracts to receive a larger return in the prospect haul. Even if we add an asterisk, way too many of these free agent signings look stale.

Injuries play a major role with players like Jose Quintana, Kodai Senga, and Omar Narvaez missing significant time. Starling Marte coming out of his contract valued at less than half of what the Mets paid him shouldn’t go unnoticed. That was a big, long contract. In contrast to the shorter deals with Pham and Canha, we’re reminded of how much smarter it is to go short and high rather than long and at market value.

More than the Mets' mistakes is how many Eppler appeared to make with the Angels. Other than Rivera, all underperformed to their contract’s values. This would have been the kind of thing Steve Cohen might have wanted to look at before hiring Eppler.