USA Today predicts the NY Mets sign free agent coming off of his worst MLB season

It seems every free agent starting pitcher has their flaws. There’s something to be turned off about each of them. We can claim this to be one of the bigger reasons why many New York Mets fans seem more focused on the trade market than signing a starting pitcher.

We can easily make assumptions about what David Stearns will or won’t do based on the last two offseasons. His biggest starting pitcher contract he handed out was to Sean Manaea last winter when he paid him $75 million over three years. Just because it was the highest-priced deal to come to fruition doesn’t mean Stearns will completely pass on other opportunities. The Mets were as in on Yoshinobu Yamamoto as anyone.

Over at USA Today, three of their MLB writers put together some predictions for where different free agents will sign. Presented without commentary, all three have Zac Gallen going to the NL East. One chose the Philadelphia Phillies. The other two have the Mets being the ones to sign Gallen.

Is Zac Gallen really right for the Mets?

Gallen is coming off of a poor season with a career-worst 4.83 ERA and 8.2 K/9 which happened to be the lowest in any season of his career. He turned 30 in August. Luckily for him, that’s around the time he began to play a lot better.

Gallen’s season was different from many of the Mets pitchers who crashed late in the season. August was his best month at 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA. September was his second best at 3-2 with a 4.20 ERA. The months included an OPS of .626 and .633, respectively.

A strong second-half with a 3.97 ERA overall helps lay out one of the better arguments as to why Gallen isn’t a horrible match for the Mets. Even with just a 7.6 K/9 rate, he was a proven run preventer and regularly went 6+ innings. From July-September, Gallen logged 6 or more innings in 13 of his 16 starts.

The contract is the hardest part of believing he’ll end up with the Mets until we wonder if a shorter term deal is something Gallen would agree to. Because last year was a down season, he might actually be a match in New York for a deal that includes an opt out after one season.

Spotrac has him at only a $18.7 million AAV market value which feels light even after the year he had. Something closer to $25 million per year seems likely, especially on a shorter deal.

It is terrifying to see Spotrac suggest Gallen’s market is a match for what Taijuan Walker, Jack Flaherty, and Frankie Montas received recently in free agency. A fourth pitcher, Jameson Taillon, is included in there, too. He has been better in years two and three with the Chicago Cubs than he was in the first. The other three have been far more unreliable.

Any kind of deal with Gallen would need an escape clause for team and player. The idea of a mutual option for 2027 seems redundant as those tend to always be turned down by one half. Given how poorly the second year player option went with Montas, it’s difficult to suggest that direction either.

Just about every top free agent starting pitcher has been predicted to sign with the Mets by one person or another. We know they’ll add someone in some capacity. The question no one seems to have a clear answer about is who’ll get taken out of the starting five to make room.