A Mets free agent target who can be next year's Luis Severino

The New York Mets enter the offseason with a lot of work and high expectations surrounding the long run the organization achieved last season. Understandably, the Mets' starting rotation is the team's vital area of ​​work following the potential departure of Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Jose Quintana.

David Stearns will likely use an approach similar to last offseason, trying to sign pitchers with less long-term financial commitment, who could come from years of poor performance to promote a greater return, as in the case of Luis Severino. In this case, there are some free agents with a profile similar to Sevy's, coming from a regular year in 2024 but with stuff and the potential to have a rebound in 2025.

Walker Buehler would be the next Luis Severino of the Mets.

Walker Buehler was a force for the Los Angeles Dodgers' depleted pitching during the postseason, especially in the final stretch, remembered for his performance as a closer in the final game of the World Series. However, the 2024 season was a disaster for Buehler's career, finishing with a 5.34 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP in 75.1 innings pitched, and his worst K/9 and BB/9.

Buehler's results quickly remind us of Severino's 2023 season, with a 6.65 ERA his worst in his MLB career. However, their cases have certain differences. In Buehler's case, 2024 represents his return after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career and a repair to his flexor tendon.

What for many could be a durability concern in Buehler's case is also intriguing because his 2024 regular season performance could be entirely explained by an adaptation problem after his two surgeries. On the other hand, there are clear similarities with Severino. For example, Buehler's fastball continues to have the same velocity as previous seasons averaging 95 mph but with a slugging allowed of .696 similar to the .692 allowed by Severino in 2023.

To improve on this, the Mets should try to adjust Buehler's mechanics but above all change the use of his pitching repertoire. In 2024 Severino used the fastball less than in 2023, which helped him combine pitches and use it at the right times, something that Buehler should do but at a higher level, relying more on his cutter to which he was connected for an xBA of .218 and an xSLG of just .330 and produces 28% more swing and miss than his fastball.

With the necessary adjustments, Buehler could put together a good season for the Mets, in a proven too good again one-year contract to restore his market value for about $12-15 million by 2025.