Braves roster reject, NY Mets free agent steal is near top of NL Cy Young predictor

An apology is owed by 99.9% of New York Mets fans if they haven’t done so already. Shortly after delighting us all with the signing of Juan Soto, the team added Griffin Canning on a one-year deal worth $4.25 million. He came to a team already full of starting pitching options, some favorable and some not so much.

Canning had never really been all that good during his time with the Los Angeles Angels. This wasn’t a reclamation project. It was more of a reset for a guy who hadn’t shown much of anything.

Before coming to the Mets, Canning had a pit stop with the Atlanta Braves for a couple of weeks in November. He was traded for Jorge Soler only to be non-tendered later that month. The Mets swooped in, adjusted some buttons, and after 8 starts he’s right behind the leader in ESPN’s Cy Young predictor for the National League.

Griffin Canning is an early favorite for the Cy Young based on at least one algorithm

The thing to know about the Cy Young predictor is it heavily adds on for a team on a division leader. Because the Mets are ahead of everyone else in the NL East, we find him on the list alongside Clay Holmes, Kodai Senga, and as recently as Wednesday, Edwin Diaz. The three starters are all easily among the best starting pitchers in the league this year. While Diaz has had his bumps, his presence does at least serve as a reminder of how he is still one of the best closers in the game. Diaz has since been overtaken by others, but he's not far from getting back.

Canning’s 55.8 points comes from an algorithm created by Bill James and Rob Neyer. It’s an attempt to calculate who will win the Cy Young. This is the formula used:

((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + Victory Bonus aka leading your division

The algorithm isn’t perfect. Last year’s American League Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal finished behind Emmanuel Clase. In the National League, Cy Young winner Chris Sale was second to Ryan Helsley. The theme of a reliever leading the charge was true in 2023 as well with Felix Bautista in the American League and Devin Williams in the National League. Gerrit Cole finished in second behind Bautista. However, NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell was fifth and behind Spencer Strider, Alexis Diaz, and Camilo Doval.

There’s a reason why the equation is a predictor and not the actual declaration of who the Cy Young winner becomes. Numbers only tell a part of the story. Plus, there are agendas and other considerations. A pitcher carrying a team on his back for the final two months and taking the ball on short rest with inferior overall numbers in comparison to someone who cruised through the first half and stumbled late might not rate as well here, but could get the nod from rational voters.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the current leader with 57.3 points. Canning can easily pass him with his next start or even a Los Angeles Dodgers losing streak.

Canning’s shocking rise with the Mets this year is one we can all appreciate from a few different viewpoints. His personal achievement is at the top. We credit David Stearns, Jeremy Hefner, and anyone else who believed in him, as well as provided the guidance.

Let’s not forget how the Braves simply cut him from the roster before ever throwing a pitch. It’s a part of the story and an equally important one for our enjoyment.