Reunion-worthy NY Mets free agent might be more expensive than we realize

According to Spotrac, the New York Mets free agent we should be most unsure about is getting paid this offseason. They have him projected to earn a deal worth around an $11 million AAV for two years. Tyler Rogers is getting paid this offseason.

After earning less than $6 million in 2025, Spotrac’s algorithm has Rogers getting a large bump in his first trip into the free agent landscape. Using their Market Value which compares players to others who’ve signed with similar statistics, he is projected to be one of the better-paid free agent relievers this offseason.

If the assessment is correct, there’s no chance the Mets are possibly bringing him back, right?

Tyler Rogers is long gone from the Mets if that’s how much it’ll cost to keep him

Rogers had a weird two months with the Mets. Unreliable when he entered the middle of an inning, he was quite the opposite in other instances. He made 28 appearances and pitched to a 2.30 ERA. He was, without a doubt, the best trade deadline acquisition made by David Stearns. That’s not saying much. Danny Almonte spent a summer being the best little leaguer in the world and he wasn’t so little nor did he belong in their league.

Comparable contracts for Rogers include Andrew Kittredge, Robert Stephenson, Robert Suarez, and Blake Treinen. Their AAVs range between $9.2 million-$11 million. Rogers has definitely earned a nice deal with his consistent yet overlooked career. A 2.76 ERA in 7 seasons, he did it without much flash and a high level of softer contact and ground balls.

His unique delivery is what has helped him stand out. It’s one of those reasons why the Mets went after him in the first place along with his durability. Rogers has led the league in games pitched four times in his career. Appearing in 81 games in 2025, he did so yet again.

When used properly, Rogers is a very good reliever to have. But do the Mets pay him around $10 or $11 million per year? It would put him in the same level as A.J. Minter. With Edwin Diaz likely to need a fresh contract in the proximity of $18-20 million per season, the payroll begins to climb before they’ve even assessed other areas of need.

There are worse ways for the Mets to spend $11 million on what should be a near-endless payroll. But we know that’s not how they’ll approach things. There is a limit to both what Steve Cohen is willing to pay and what Stearns thinks a player’s value is. We can probably kiss Rogers goodbye. At this projected asking price, it’s not the wrong thing to do.