Ron Darling's NY Mets free agent pitcher preference has one big question attached

Ron Darling doesn’t sound like he’s a big fan of Framber Valdez. At least not when it comes to matching him up against Zac Gallen. Appearing on Jon Heyman’s podcast The Show, he did some planning for the possibility that the New York Mets don’t sign Kyle Tucker. Darling suggested pivoting to Gallen for some logical reasons.

Gallen is more prone to sign a short-term contract, Darling suggesting a two-year deal with an opt out in between years one and two. That’s certainly a possibility. Gallen, coming off of one of his weakest seasons since becoming a full-time starter in the majors, doesn’t have the same kind of gusto as some of the other free agent arms this offseason. A three-time top 10 finisher in the Cy Young, he finished with a 4.83 ERA in 33 starts. His second half was better, but not enough so to avoid allowing a career-high 31 home runs which seemed to do a lot of the damage. His previous high was only 22.

It hasn’t seemed like the Mets are all that interested in Gallen. Darling looks at him as someone who’ll make 30 starts and cost a reasonable amount on a two-year contract. The question is if the Mets are actually willing to part with two draft picks plus another $1 million in international bonus slot money to add him with there being a good chance he walks after one season.

The age old question comes up with Zac Gallen in free agency: is he worth the qualifying offer penalties?

Because the Mets actually spend money on players, they get slapped on the wrist hardest for signing a player who rejected the QO. They’re unlikely to sign more than one, resulting in the loss of two draft picks. That’s why Gallen is only a possibility if the Mets fail to bring Tucker to town.

Valdez would have the same penalty, but on a longer term deal, even at just 4 years, it’s more acceptable. One year plus you lose the draft picks? It seems like a lot for a pitcher coming off of a bad year and trending a little bit downward over the past two seasons.

The Mets have a solution to the lost international bonus pool money. On Thursday, they traded prospect Franklin Gomez for $1.5 million extra to spend in this year’s international free agency. They can always recoup that lost money by trading away other young prospects in the future. It’s the draft pick loss that tends to build up.

However, if the Mets aren’t going to trade away prospects for major leaguers, it’s sensible to go out and sign a player like Gallen. Yes, he’d have a higher salary than Freddy Peralta. But he’d cost two unknown draft picks rather than two or three you’ve already built up. It’s a matter of the devil you know versus the one you don’t.

Deciding who is and who isn’t worth the lost draft picks is one of the decisions every front office executives have to make. The Mets clearly don’t mind it with Tucker nor did they think twice when Juan Soto was available last offseason.

Gallen’s market is difficult to predict. Spotrac has him at $18.7 million over four years. It’s not entirely reliable. Ranger Suarez was calculated to get $161 million over six seasons. He got $130 over five.

A two-year deal for Gallen will cost the Mets more in AAV, likely in the $20-25 million range and likely on the higher end of that. The draft picks lost would make it feel more like a trade. The second and fifth-highest draft picks are lost.

In 2022, those picks by the Mets were Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat (who didn’t sign but was drafted again the following year). Even if you want to put an asterisk on Sproat, their next highest selection was Jacob Reimer. In 2023, Sproat was their second pick with Wyatt Hudepohl as the fifth. Right behind him was A.J. Ewing, a compensatory pick for the Mets after Jacob deGrom signed with the Texas Rangers.

Gallen isn’t all that much more intriguing than the Mets potentially signing Lucas Giolito or Chris Bassitt. With them, the question is health and maybe in Bassitt’s case a little bit of age. Neither of them would cost any draft pick compensation.

Darling isn’t wrong to see Gallen as a possible solution. Those stiff penalties just make it tougher to bear him being one-and-done. If a trade package like Sproat and Williams can help get you Peralta, why not do that instead?