Disastrous Blue Jays contract helps the NY Mets justify their free agent philosophy

Pete Alonso was coming off of a poor 2024 regular season, a few memorable home runs in the postseason, and a lot of unanswered questions about his future with the New York Mets. He eventually came back to the team on a two-year deal with an opt out after one season. He made the most of it, parlaying it into a 5-year deal worth $155 million from the Baltimore Orioles.

Before Alonso came back, Mets fans were scurrying to figure out what the team could do to replace him. Anything and everything was on the table. From logical choices such as Christian Walker to more outside of the box ones like Jurickson Profar, many went sideways in 2025.

Walker underperformed for the Houston Astros in year one and Profar missed half the season with a PED suspension. No potential Alonso replacement might have started off worse than the free agent taken by the Toronto Blue Jays. Even if you were invested in watching the MLB playoffs, you might have blinked and missed Anthony Santander’s contributions. Once a believed potential Alonso replacement, he's now the owner of a questionable contract that's far from over with.

Anthony Santander is proof the short-term, high AAV deals are often better

A five-year deal worth $92.5 million with a team option for another $15 million isn’t the absolute worst contract in sports. However, with just 54 games and a .175 batting average coming from it, we can see how things can escalate quickly regardless of the amount.

The Blue Jays would be in a real rut right now financially if they were paying Santander $30 million per year. It would hold them back this offseason and again in 2027. It’s a bullet to chew on, but at least it would be over quickly.

There is always a chance Santander has a better 2026. He smashed 44 home runs in 2024, after all. A prominent slugger for a couple years with the Baltimore Orioles, the Blue Jays bought him on a high only to see the lowest of what he could offer in year one of five.

A contract now only 20% over with, he’ll take home just under $20 million in each of the next two seasons. He has an opt out after the 2027 season. Is it too soon to confirm he’ll choose to opt in?

A large part of the contract is deferred, kicking the financial burden down the road into the future. It’s by no means a contract that should hinder the Blue Jays. The bigger problem arises when they try to justify keeping him on the roster and maybe even in the lineup. They aren’t going to pull the plug quickly. He’s going to get a chance to be better. On a shorter deal, the leash can tighten and they could conceivably demote him to a smaller role sooner than later.

Let’s use a Mets player as an example. Starling Marte signed for four years and $78 million. By the time the Mets got to year four, he was a mostly part-time player who only got into the lineup more often because of injury and he played well. Sean Manaea is a current example. At $25 million, he’ll have a starting rotation job in 2026. The Mets can’t guarantee him the same in 2027 if he struggles yet again. There’s justification to move him to the bullpen. The Blue Jays might not feel so inclined with Santander until they get a little further down the road.

Whenever possible, the high AAV deal seems most favorable. It’s protection against an albatross on the payroll.