Why NY Mets free agent gamble isn't the next Seth Lugo

When the New York Mets first signed Clay Holmes, many thought it was a move to improve the bullpen. It seemed like he was going to go into the season as the setup man to Edwin Diaz. However many were surprised when the team announced that Holmes was going to be used as a starter, rather than a reliever.

Although it's risky to turn a reliever into a starter, it has worked in the past. Specifically to former Mets reliever Seth Lugo. Since becoming a starter again in 2023, Lugo has started 59 games, pitching 353 innings to a 3.24 ERA, with 321 strikeouts to 84 walks, a 1.136 WHIP, and an ERA+ of 130. He also finished second in AL Cy Young Award voting in 2024. However just because it worked for Lugo doesn't mean it's going to work for Holmes.

Why Clay Holmes won't have the same success as Seth Lugo

When Lugo signed with the Padres after the 2022 season, he was seen as a full-time reliever. At the time he'd been the most reliable bullpen arm for the Mets for the better of five seasons. He made the occasional spot start but that was done out of necessity rather than thinking Lugo could be part of the rotation.

Going into the 2018 season, Lugo was seen as a potential mid-to-back of the rotation starter. Over his two years as a starter, he had an ERA of 3.92 over 165.1 innings with 130 strikeouts to 46 walks a 1.264 WHIP, and an ERA+ of 105. His performance down the stretch in 2016 was a big reason why the Mets clinched a Wild Card berth. With this track record, it made sense why the Padres try to make him a starter.

Holmes doesn't have as good of a track record. In his seven-year career, he's only made four career starts, back in 2018. In those starts, he had an ERA of 7.80 over 15 innings with 12 strikeouts and 13 walks. That was the only time in his big league career he started, and during that season he was a swingman. The last time he was a full-time starter was when he was in Triple-A in 2017. Nothing about his starter career inspire confidence he can be an efficient one.

He's also spent some much time in the bullpen he's curated his pitching strategy to fit it. According to Baseball Savant Holmes threw his sinker 56.3% of the time and threw his Slider and Sweeper a little over 20. Heavy reliance on one pitch isn't doesn't work for starters, as it does for relievers. After the second or third time batters will know what's coming. Lugo on the other hand has nine pitches in his arsenal and was using them while in the bullpen. Thus allowing him to keep the same strategy when he went back to being a starter. The plan does seem to include re-adding some pitches back into Holmes' arsenal. Having abandoned them in the first place should have us hesitant to expect it's such an easy transition.

Although players like Lugo prove relievers can become starters, Holmes doesn't have the ability to make the change.