Freddy Peralta isn't the NY Mets free agent they need to think about keeping around

Some names sell themselves the second they hit the market. That is the kind of attention the New York Mets are going to deal with when the offseason puts pitching back at the top of the list, and Freddy Peralta enters the picture. A proven starter with swing-and-miss stuff tends to check the obvious boxes, and for all those reasons, it is easy to see why the Mets traded for him this past offseason.

The problem is that surface-level fit does not decide moves like this. Peralta can help, but helping is not enough if the price and long-term value do not line up. When performance, contract cost, and the need to maintain flexibility for a bigger arm are put side by side, the decision becomes much more specific. This is not just about adding pitching. It is about why he is not the free agent the Mets should be thinking about keeping around, no matter how easy it might feel to just run it back.

Clay Holmes is the Mets free agent to re-sign this offseason, not Freddy Peralta

Peralta checks the obvious boxes, but that is exactly why the Mets cannot stop there. The surface-level fit is easy to sell; a proven starter with swing-and-miss stuff is always going to look like the right move. The problem is that this decision is not just about adding pitching; it is about how much that pitching costs and what it prevents you from doing next.

That is where Clay Holmes stands out. He already showed he can handle a full starter’s workload, posting a 3.53 ERA over 165.2 innings with a 4.11 FIP and a groundball rate in the top 6% of the league at 55.9%. More importantly, he gave the Mets something they did not get enough of, going at least five innings in 23 of 31 starts on a staff that struggled to get through games.

Now he is building on it. A 1.50 ERA through his first three starts over 18 innings, allowing 12 hits with six walks and 12 strikeouts, shows the same version is still there. This is not a one-year spike. This is a pitcher trending in the right direction heading straight into free agency, which is exactly when the price usually jumps.

The contract situation is what makes this decision time-sensitive. Holmes is in year two of a three-year, $38 million deal, with a $12 million player option waiting. That number won't hold if this continues, which points to an opt-out and sends him into free agency.

That is also where the value becomes the biggest factor. Holmes offers production the Mets already trust, but at a price point that can still work within a bigger plan. That is the difference between adding a good pitcher and building a staff: one keeps options open, while the other can close them quickly.

There is also a recent example to follow. Last season, Seth Lugo signed a two-year, $46 million deal with the Royals after making the same reliever-to-starter jump. Two of his last three seasons  looked very similar to what Holmes just did, which gives the Amazins a clear range to work from. If Holmes lands in that range, they are not just getting a reliable starter; they are getting one at a strong value.

That difference in value is what the Mets have to weigh here. Peralta is heading into his age-31 season and will command a much bigger contract. Even with money to spend, committing to that kind of deal limits flexibility. If the Mets want to keep the door open for a top-tier arm like Tarik Skubal next offseason, the smarter play is clear. Re-sign Holmes at value, keep the rotation stable, and avoid locking into a deal that takes away that next move.

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