Unique NY Mets free agent gets a contract from the Blue Jays we had no interest in

The New York Mets have lost many of the key players from their roster from the last several years. Two left via free agency, with star closer Edwin Diaz signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and all-time Mets home run leader Pete Alonso heading to Baltimore during the Winter Meetings. The Mets were still interested in bolstering their bullpen by re-signing right-hander and 2025 trade deadline acquisition Tyler Rogers. However, after seeing how much the Toronto Blue Jays recently signed him for, the Mets may have dodged a bullet.

The Jays ended up picking up Rogers on a three-year contract worth $37 million. That is an AAV of $12.33 million. That is much more than MLB Trade Rumors predicted he’d make per year, with a $9 million AAV over two years. The Jays also gave Rogers more than what Spotrac projected his value at, coming in at just about $11.35 million. Interestingly, Baseball America projected he’d make more than he ended up signing for, as they predicted a three-year deal worth $44 million.

Rogers had a strong 2025 season with the San Francisco Giants and the New York Mets. He tossed 77.1 innings while working to a 1.98 ERA, 2.88 FIP, and 0.94 WHIP. Rogers has never been one to strike out many batters, and he only had a 16.1% K% this year. However, his 2.3% walk rate was the lowest of any qualified reliever in 2025. His biggest strength is limiting hard contact, as he posted a 99th percentile exit velocity of 85.8 MPH and a 100th percentile barrel percentage of 2.1%. Rogers’ tenure with the Mets came to 27.1 innings, with a 2.30 ERA, only a 9% strikeout rate, but a strong 2.7% walk rate, and 2.1% barrel percentage.

Tyler Rogers' new contract shows the Mets may have ended up dodging a bullpet.

Rogers has been one of baseball’s better relievers since his 2021 breakout. He has the fourth-lowest qualified walk rate, with the 25th-best ERA among relievers. Rogers has tossed at least 70 innings in each of the last five seasons, and his 378.1 innings pitched out of the bullpen lead the league since 2021. 2025 wasn’t an outlier for Rogers when it comes to limiting hard contact. He has been in the 98th percentile or better of both exit velocity and barrel rate in four of the last five campaigns. The only year he wasn’t was 2024, when he was still in the 93rd percentile for barrel percentage at 4.4% and the 99th percentile for exit velocity at 85.2 MPH.

On paper, $12.33 million may not seem like an enormous amount, but this is for a pitcher who will likely serve as a set-up man. The Mets’ contract with Devin Williams gave him an AAV of $15 million for three seasons, and the deferrals bring that down to below what Rogers will get paid over the same period. Robert Suarez’s three-year, $45 million contract with the Atlanta Braves was also a $15 million AAV, less than $3 million more per season than Rogers. Both Williams and Suarez have a strong chance of being their respective team’s closing pitchers. While Rogers can close games out, it’s not a role he’s accustomed to, with only one season where he recorded double-digit saves, racking up 13 in 2021. Since then, he has 11 save opportunities, but his 109 holds lead the league, and he is the only reliever with 100+ holds.

The Mets still need bullpen reinforcements. But signing Rogers for more than what they’re going to give Williams in 2026, but to be Williams’ set-up man, may not have been the best idea for the Mets. Losing Diaz may hurt, but signing Rogers for as much, if not more than, what the most recent American League pennant winners just gave him may have only made this offseason hurt even more.