Mets offseason: Which MLB free agents are worth the qualifying offer penalties?

Everyone but Nick Martinez turned down the qualifying offer. This includes the three players the New York Mets extended one to; Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea, and Luis Severino. Most free agents do reject it so this wasn’t such an unusual set of circumstances.

Because of where the Mets payroll was last season, signing just one player who rejected the qualifying offer comes with a harsh penalty. The second and fifth highest draft picks plus $1 million in international bonus pool money is taken away. Sign two players and the Mets would additionally lose their third and sixth highest draft picks.

If players like Alonso, Manaea, and Severino sign elsewhere, the Mets would get a draft pick for each. Those picks would take place after the fourth round. Strategically, the Mets could toss those out the window in favor of signing a major leaguer.

Rather than go player by player, let’s categorize them. Who is worth the QO penalty, who isn’t, and which player(s), if any, could be paired together this offseason in a bloodletting of next year’s draft?

Players worth the qualifying offer (alone) and in order of how worth it they’d be: Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Christian Walker, Max Fried

These are the ones the Mets should have any interest in signing from the pool. Sorry, everyone else. You’re not offering quite enough and there are too many other alternatives. 

The Mets are very unlikely to have Manaea and Severino both back on the roster next year. We can expect this to add one draft pick minimum to the organization which adds extra incentive to make sure they sign at least one of these players.

Juan Soto is easily the apple of everyone’s eye. The other players have some intriguing alternative possibilities.

Notably, it’s Blake Snell with no QO penalty attached to him this year where the Mets can pivot for an ace. Corbin Burnes is considered to be the best free agent pitcher available. Max Fried has the talent but an injury history could have some ball clubs thinking otherwise.

It’s a tougher sell, personally, to want the team to add Alex Bregman or Christian Walker. The far easier move is to simply re-sign Pete Alonso. In Bregman’s case, Mark Vientos stays at third base.

Players not worth any QO penalty in order of how much they should be avoided: Nick Pivetta, Anthony Santander, Willy Adames, Teoscar Hernandez

There’s probably a lot less debate here because these four remaining players who rejected the QO are on a lesser level. Willy Adames is the one most often mentioned in offseason Mets rumors thus far. A bit of a surprise considering he is a shortstop and the Mets have that position locked up, a plan of moving him to third base is a bit too outlandish for my liking. He had a good year but doesn’t have an enticing enough track record. No tears would be shed if the Mets did sign him. It just doesn’t seem like the strongest move. The qualifying offer attachment has less to do with my lack of desire to add him. He just seems like an imperfect addition.

Nick Pivetta is the easiest pass of all. While a quality pitcher for several years for the Boston Red Sox, he falls into a similar spot as Severino. For what it’s worth, he has never finished a season with an ERA better than the 4.04 ERA posted in 2023. This was a season where he spent significant time pitching in relief.

Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernandez could create some debate. How necessary are they for the Mets to pursue? Each is coming off of a strong season. They’d fit in well with the Mets as Soto alternatives, but don’t seem to be quite good enough to sacrifice two draft picks. There are other solutions out there for the Mets.