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Mets offseason: Which MLB free agents are worth the qualifying offer penalties?
Sign a player who rejected the qualifying offer and you pay. Who would be worth the penalties?
Everyone but Nick Martinez turned down the qualifying offer. This includes the three players the New York Mets extended one to; Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea, and Luis Severino. Most free agents do reject it so this wasn’t such an unusual set of circumstances.
Because of where the Mets payroll was last season, signing just one player who rejected the qualifying offer comes with a harsh penalty. The second and fifth highest draft picks plus $1 million in international bonus pool money is taken away. Sign two players and the Mets would additionally lose their third and sixth highest draft picks.
If players like Alonso, Manaea, and Severino sign elsewhere, the Mets would get a draft pick for each. Those picks would take place after the fourth round. Strategically, the Mets could toss those out the window in favor of signing a major leaguer.
Rather than go player by player, let’s categorize them. Who is worth the QO penalty, who isn’t, and which player(s), if any, could be paired together this offseason in a bloodletting of next year’s draft?
Players worth the qualifying offer (alone) and in order of how worth it they’d be: Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Christian Walker, Max Fried
These are the ones the Mets should have any interest in signing from the pool. Sorry, everyone else. You’re not offering quite enough and there are too many other alternatives.
The Mets are very unlikely to have Manaea and Severino both back on the roster next year. We can expect this to add one draft pick minimum to the organization which adds extra incentive to make sure they sign at least one of these players.
Juan Soto is easily the apple of everyone’s eye. The other players have some intriguing alternative possibilities.
Notably, it’s Blake Snell with no QO penalty attached to him this year where the Mets can pivot for an ace. Corbin Burnes is considered to be the best free agent pitcher available. Max Fried has the talent but an injury history could have some ball clubs thinking otherwise.
It’s a tougher sell, personally, to want the team to add Alex Bregman or Christian Walker. The far easier move is to simply re-sign Pete Alonso. In Bregman’s case, Mark Vientos stays at third base.
Players not worth any QO penalty in order of how much they should be avoided: Nick Pivetta, Anthony Santander, Willy Adames, Teoscar Hernandez
There’s probably a lot less debate here because these four remaining players who rejected the QO are on a lesser level. Willy Adames is the one most often mentioned in offseason Mets rumors thus far. A bit of a surprise considering he is a shortstop and the Mets have that position locked up, a plan of moving him to third base is a bit too outlandish for my liking. He had a good year but doesn’t have an enticing enough track record. No tears would be shed if the Mets did sign him. It just doesn’t seem like the strongest move. The qualifying offer attachment has less to do with my lack of desire to add him. He just seems like an imperfect addition.
Nick Pivetta is the easiest pass of all. While a quality pitcher for several years for the Boston Red Sox, he falls into a similar spot as Severino. For what it’s worth, he has never finished a season with an ERA better than the 4.04 ERA posted in 2023. This was a season where he spent significant time pitching in relief.
Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernandez could create some debate. How necessary are they for the Mets to pursue? Each is coming off of a strong season. They’d fit in well with the Mets as Soto alternatives, but don’t seem to be quite good enough to sacrifice two draft picks. There are other solutions out there for the Mets.
Players worth the qualifying offer if paired together: Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes
What pairings could the Mets make with qualifying offer additions? The only one worth losing four draft picks over would be signing Soto and Burnes. This probably won’t happen. But if it did, even at the cost of the penalties, it’s worth it.
Landing Soto doesn’t mean the Mets won’t bring back Alonso. On the contrary, it would be the right move to make as Alonso wouldn’t lose them any draft picks. Burnes would guarantee the Mets are letting at least one of Manaea and Severino walk away. The additional draft pick they would gain is lost but for good reason. What value is a Round 4A draft pick in comparison to having these two on your win-now roster?
Under all circumstances, Soto is a must for the Mets. Burnes, perhaps not so much. The Mets can circumnavigate any additional draft pick losses by re-signing Manaea (the better of the two between he and Severino) and adding Blake Snell if they’re interested in the best free agent starter without the QO attachment.
A good guess would be that Burnes and Soto aren’t teammates in 2025. And when we consider this year’s free agent class, the directions the Mets can go while diverting from Burnes are more plentiful than if they miss out on Soto. Far too many of the best hitters received the qualifying offer this offseason. There are enough other moves, including trades, for the Mets to add to the rotation.
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