NY Mets free agency history is repeating, this year’s rain is coming down harder

Edwin Diaz is no lock to return to the New York Mets. You know that. Life has no guarantees. The latest reports about the beloved closer have the Toronto Blue Jays vying to add him to their mix.

Ken Rosenthal calls it “a perfect storm.” It’s not encouraging. And just by looking at how much the Blue Jays have missed in free agency in the past with Shohei Ohtani being their white whale who slipped away, we can begin to see exactly why the Blue Jays are a much larger threat to take Diaz away than they ever were for Pete Alonso last winter.

When Alonso was unsigned into February last offseason, the only remaining team with a connection to the Polar Bear seemed to be the Blue Jays. The idea of putting him as the DH alongside Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would have given them a fantastic right-handed duo in the middle of the lineup. Alonso returned to the Mets. New York is going to need a big umbrella to stop this rain from falling.

The Blue Jays have far more incentive to sign Edwin Diaz than they did Pete Alonso

The fact that they lost Game 7 of the World Series with closer Jeff Hoffman tanking their season adds greater reason to believe the Blue Jays will be motivated to sign Diaz. Although the market for him isn’t quite as robust as it should, mainly only because there are a small number of teams who’d actually pay a closer around $20 million per year, the contract demands of about 5 years and $102 million aren’t outrageous for a club looking to end a championship drought now over 30 years old.

The Blue Jays can point directly at their lack of stability in the closer spot as to why they didn’t defeat the Dodgers. Add Diaz in there and the Los Angeles Dodgers are runner-ups and not repeat champions. The Will Smith streak of World Series wins is over.

We can understand why the Blue Jays would sign him. The other part is why the Mets would let him go. Free agency offers them lesser options with Robert Suarez being arguably the best competition. Going short term with a closer raises a new question of what the Mets would do a year or two from now. Someone like Kenley Jansen solves a problem now, but the Mets will end up circling around again looking for an answer next offseason.

What’s more, the AAV isn’t really saving the Mets much at all. Saving $7-8 million in the closer spot can buy the Mets another reliever. But with affordable players like Nolan McLean poised to have a major role on the team getting paid league minimum, pinching pennies doesn’t pass the sniff test.

The qualifying offer penalty doesn’t seem like it’ll be a deterrent for the Blue Jays, Dodgers, or any other team if they can be awarded one of the best closers in baseball. Proven that he’s worth a mult-year deal, the Mets can’t be passive about him like they were with Alonso.