The biggest question for the NY Mets and Francisco Lindor comes after Opening Day

Questionable for Opening Day with a large dose of optimism from New York Mets management, Francisco Lindor’s hamate bone injury has trumped any of the discussion about Juan Soto moving from right field to left field. That was a needed change, albeit a poorly-timed one. Lindor’s injury was unplanned and alarming.

Hamate bone injuries seem to be all the rage this year with Corbin Carroll and Jackson Holliday suffering the same. Mets fans may recall that it’s the same injury which knocked Francisco Alvarez onto the IL to begin the 2025 season. He recovered remarkably quickly, fracturing the bone on March 8 and returning to the Mets on April 25. As impressive as the recovery was, the performance wasn’t so spectacular.

Jeff Passan noted how players recovering from the hamate bone injury have a loss of power that can take months to return. Alvarez is a prime example of this.

Francisco Alvarez’s first 24 games back from his hamate bone injury last year showed how long it takes to come close to a full recovery

In those first 24 games back from the IL, Alvarez had 92 plate appearances and a .235/.326/.296 slash line. Until you got to that last number, things were looking promising. He was hitting regularly enough for a catcher in the bottom of the order. His OBP wasn’t horrific either. Just two doubles and a home run was the larger concern for a guy who can rip into baseballs well.

This wasn’t an injury that negatively affected him right out of the gate. These 24 games, spanning April and May, included a home run in his second game back, a double in his third, and his next extra-base hit in game 18. He sprinkled in singles and walks along the way. His slugging percentage didn’t overtake his OBP until June 8th when he hit his second home run of the season. He was demoted to the minors later that month, oddly after hitting his third home run of the season.

Comparing Lindor and Alvarez as players isn’t apples to apples unless you’re coming up with a list of players named Francisco. Lindor is the far more accomplished player in every way. Nevertheless, the drop off and warning from Passan is something we already experienced.

Already known for starting slowly, we need to brace for what could be a month and a half or more of Lindor trudging through at-bats. 

Last year was far different for Lindor than it was in 2024 as he hit over .300 with 6 home runs in the first month of the season. The hamate bone injury, if power is most affected, might not even have him reaching the 5 home runs he had in 2024 at the end of April when he got off to a notoriously bad start to the season.

Home runs may need to take a backseat in 2026. Far from his most impressive attribute, he has been a 30+ home run guy in each of the last three seasons. Out of the leadoff spot, the Mets can excuse a dip in power if Lindor can find a way to create chaos in other ways such as getting on base via walk with some more regularity. Even though he gets rightfully crushed for his 2021 season, his 11.1% walk rate remains the best of his career.

A.J. Pierzynski added some life experience into the side effects of the injury. He played only 9 major league games in 1999 so we don’t have as fair of an assessment. There's still merit to what he says. Medicine has advanced since then. The human body has remained the same.

Do we need it? Everyone is telling us exactly what to expect out of Lindor with plenty of examples. Take the under on home runs he’ll hit and don’t think twice.