Former NY Mets player is predicted for a sudden downfall with the Blue Jays

Worth 1.3 fWAR last season, Tyler Rogers had what could be considered a tie for his best season. He matched that total in 2021. The difference last year was his 1.98 ERA set a new standard in excellence for the submarining New York Mets trade deadline rental.

Unique, gifted, and now wealthy after getting a 3-year deal worth $37 million with a vesting option for a fourth year, Rogers will have a chance to bring his brand of baseball to the Toronto Blue Jays in their attempt to get over the hump known as playing the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series. Stability has been a big part of Rogers’ game. FanGraphs seems to think he’s in for a rude awakening.

FanGraphs projections don’t look down favorably on Tyler Rogers

FanGraphs includes several different projections, Steamer and ZiPS being two of the more well-known ones. Steamer has him with a 3.99 ERA. ZiPS projects a 3.72 ERA. They have opposing fWARs of 0.3 with the higher ERA from Steamer and 0.2 fWAR from ZiPS. Regardless of which you prefer, a full run per inning from the lifetime 2.76 ERA is what is projected.

Going from a career with the San Francisco Giants to the Blue Jays and American League East won’t help him. It’s a reasonable assessment of the situation. However, an increase in walks and FIPs slightly over 4.00 in a career where he never has gone above that number kind of come out of nowhere. What’s more, Steamer doesn’t even have him getting the same ground ball rate he typically does. Still a fantastic 51.1%, it would be the second-lowest of his career.

Where is all of this coming from?

Ballpark factors aren’t all that different between Citi Field and Rogers Centre over the last three years. Rogers Centre has actually played as average. It has the same 104 rating as Citi Field does.

No doubt, leaving Oracle Park comes with risks. It’s one of the safest ballparks to pitch in.

Before he joined the Blue Jays, the Mets were very much interested in keeping Rogers. The lone trade deadline acquisition who seemed to meet expectations, re-signing him would have helped further justify the trade for him. Three players who’ll have some major league impact in 2026 is a lot to give up for a two-month rental.

Rogers’ age is probably a larger factor than anything else in these projections. At 35, he’s bound to show cracks eventually. A proud four-time league leader in games pitched, it doesn’t matter what his arm angle is. Everyone has a shelf life.