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Former NY Mets player looks poised to steal money in free agency, it's not Freddy Peralta

Freddy Peralta's free agent contract prediction is reasonable. This one isn't.
ByTim Boyle
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Oct 26, 2026; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Freddy Peralta (51) walks onto the field before game three of the 2026 World Series against the Milwaukee Brewers at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
Oct 26, 2026; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Freddy Peralta (51) walks onto the field before game three of the 2026 World Series against the Milwaukee Brewers at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Jim Bowden’s list of the top 40 MLB free agents couldn’t help but name Freddy Peralta number two. It’s a large fall off from the consensus number one, Tarik Skubal. New York Mets fans don’t have too many nice things to say about his performance. He was one of the bigger disappointments of the David Stearns era and the lingering taste of him suddenly figuring it all once he joined the Tampa Bay Rays continues to make him

Peralta, in the eyes of Mets fans, is about to get paid a lot more than he could be worth. Bowden has him getting 5 years and $140 million. Spotrac, using data to compare him to other recent free agents, projects 7 years and $201 million.

Both feel like a lot more than anyone expected when he was still wearing orange and blue. He should get a decent pay day. Another ex-Mets player might follow.

Is Paul Blackburn actually going to get paid what Jim Bowden believes he will?

In his same story for The Athletic, Bowden predicted Paul Blackburn gets a 2-year deal worth $22 million. The only team he names as a fit are the New York Yankees. After getting the most from him in 2026, it’s a good match for a reunion.

The contract matches exactly what the Mets gave Luke Weaver last offseason. It’s what they gave A.J. Minter the year before. A 3.1 bWAR season with a 1.59 ERA and ability to throw multiple innings in relief makes Blackburn valuable. Is he high-end, high-leverage reliever valued in terms of dollars and cents?

Fantastic results can’t be denied. However, Blackburn had the league’s worst difference between expected ERA and what he actually finished with. The 3.68 xERA is still good yet more than two full runs worse.

Spotrac couldn’t have disagreed more with Bowden’s assessment. They have Blackburn getting $7.7 million on a one-year deal. That’s the kind of “prove you can do it again” sort of contract that should sit better with the Yankees and anyone else in on Blackburn.

The Yankees cracked the Blackburn code last season, but also would be wise to not overpay him especially if a second year is on the deal. Let the 32-year-old former starter do it again before a commitment. Even if he does repeat his 2026 season, there is a limit to the AAV he should get. Spotrac’s $7.7 million is fair. Bowden’s suggested $22 million over two years is throwing money better spent elsewhere.

The ironic thing is under different circumstances, Blackburn is exactly who the Mets might target in the offseason. A "been there, tried that" attitude will have them staying away.

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