How much should NY Mets fans trust Ryne Stanek?

Playoff performances and recency bias have forever dictated a player's market before hitting free agency, Ryne Stanek and former New York Mets pitcher Phil Maton are the latest examples.

After acquiring both players at the 2024 trade deadline, Stanek supported an abysmal ERA+ of 66 with the Mets while Maton's came in almost a hundred ticks better at 159.

However, Stanek became a different player in October, closing out three playoff games while allowing just five hits and three runs over eight innings. Maton completely derailed his free agency aspirations by allowing 11 hits and six earned runs in just 6.1 innings of work in the playoffs.

Both of these players got paid accordingly, Ryne Stanek inked a one-year extension worth $4.5 million with the Mets, while Maton did not receive a single contract offer until the Cardinals signed him to a one-year $2 million deal on March 13th. Following the magic of the 2024 postseason, will Stanek come down to earth?

What to expect from Ryne Stanek in 2025

Something that may cause concern is that his fastball velocity has decreased each of the last two seasons. While this is natural for a pitcher entering his age 34 season, Stanek relies heavily on his fastball to get hitters out. In two-strike counts, he threw a fastball 55.2% of the time. If his fastball velocity dips further in 2025, he will need to rely more on his splitter to retire batters.

Ryne Stanek has not posted an ERA under four since his otherworldly 1.15 ERA in 2022. ZiPS projects him to have a 3.91 ERA this season; If Stanek can stay healthy and achieve this, Met fans should be satisfied.

The team’s deep bullpen will likely limit Stanek’s high-leverage appearances, which could ultimately work in his favor. According to FanGraphs, he allowed 14 earned runs over just14.1 high-leverage innings last season—the worst mark of his career by far.

The Mets will be relying heavily on the bullpen to secure wins early in the season while their starting pitchers recover from injury. Stanek replicating even a fraction of his production in the playoffs will be yet another quality arm in a bullpen that is already panning out to be one of the best in baseball.