What can the NY Mets actually expect from Nolan McLean?

Nolan McLean started the 2026 season much like how he finished 2025: on fire. Through the end of April, the 24-year-old was sitting on a 2.55 ERA, 33.3% strikeout rate, and 2.19 FIP. He was being mentioned in Rookie of the Year and Cy Young conversations, with New York Mets fans ready to crown him as the next great ace of the team.

Unfortunately, the calendar flipped to May, and McLean hasn't quite been the same since. His strikeout rate has fallen to 25.4%, while both his ERA (6.92) and FIP (5.49) have jumped dramatically. Things have gotten so bad recently that fans have begun comparing him to Dustin May.

Obviously, McLean should rebound from this slump, at least to the point where he's not being compared to an infamous bust. Still, his recent issues are worth analyzing, particularly seeing as he's suddenly become homer-prone.

Nolan McLean is better than he was last year, despite recent slump

Over his first nine starts this year, McLean allowed just four home runs and 17 total earned runs. In his past two outings, he's matched that homer total while giving up 13 earned runs. That's pushed his season-long ERA up to 4.40, more than double the 2.06 mark he allowed during his cup of coffee in Queens last year.

Luckily, the data suggests these struggles shouldn't be prolonged. McLean has allowed a higher batting average and slugging percentage in 2026, but the expected version of each of those stats (xBA and xSLG) are both significantly lower than they were in 2025. Likewise, his hard-hit rate is down more than five percentage points, his average exit velocity allowed is down 2.5 miles per hour, and he's allowing fewer barrels while generating more chases outside the zone.

In other words, he's gotten better in pretty much every aspect of the game from last year, even when accounting for his recent blow-ups. He certainly over-performed his metrics in 2025 -- the wOBA he allowed was 33 points below his xwOBA -- but anyone doubting his talents because of a few bad starts needs to stop being a victim of the moment.

Of course, that isn't to say McLean is flawless. He still doesn't coax nearly enough chases from opposing hitters, despite having a wildly varied arsenal in terms of movement and velocity. He's also raised his arm angle by five degrees -- a pretty significant amount -- and yet is generating a lot less groundball contact than last year. That's mostly because his sinker is now dropping 2.4 less inches on average, which is also a pretty good explanation for his recent troubles with long balls.

Because he's been so good so quickly, it's easy to forget that McLean is 24 and barely 100 innings into his MLB career. Struggles and periods of adjustment are a part of the game for everyone. He may not be quite as dominant as he looked down the stretch of 2025, but all signs point to a bona fide ace once he course corrects some of his mechanical shifts.

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