NY Mets draft miss may not be as bad in retrospect

The 2019 draft has not yielded much for the New York Mets. Of the players they drafted and signed, only Brett Baty looks like he could make something of his MLB career with the Mets. Their draft strategy focused heavily on one pitcher: right-hander Matt Allan. Despite being taken in the third round, both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America ranked him as one of the top 20 draft prospects, given that he was a high schooler with a commitment to Florida. However, Allan’s pro career hasn’t gone as planned. He suffered multiple injuries, didn’t appear in a single minor league game from 2020 through 2024, only appeared in 11 minor league games this season, and was recently released. 

Allan was given a signing bonus of $2.5 million. At the time, it was the second-most a third-round pick had received since MLB began slot values for draft picks in 2012. Only fellow 2019 draftee Hudson Head surpassed him in this regard, who signed for $3 million with the San Diego Padres and was taken five picks before Allan. While investing that much into Allan and him becoming a bust may seem bad on paper, it may not be as poor a choice in retrospect.

The rest of the 2019 draft class hasn’t produced much star talent that the Mets missed out on. Only one player who was taken after Allan has become an All-Star in their career thus far. That is right-hander Hunter Brown. The Houston Astros took him in the fifth round and he has broken out the last two seasons, becoming one of baseball’s premier starting pitchers. During the previous two seasons, Brown has 355.1 innings, posting a 2.94 ERA, 3.35 FIP, and 1.14 WHIP.

Drafting Matt Allan may not have been that bad after all.

After Brown, the Mets, along with all other teams, did not miss out on much. Only five 2019 draft picks from the 6th round onwards have gone on to produce at least 3.0 bWAR in the Major Leagues: Graham Ashcraft, David Hamilton, Vinnie Pasquantino, Kerry Carpenter, and Spencer Horwitz. Of those five, only four have produced that much bWAR with their original teams, as Horwitz was traded from the Toronto Blue Jays to the Pittsburgh Pirates after his 2024 rookie season. Just one has produced at least 5.0 bWAR, that being Carpenter, who has 6.3 over 366 games with the Detroit Tigers. 

Even the fourth round of the 2019 draft did not produce any stars, at least not yet. Solid role players like Joey Ortiz, Brenton Doyle, and Tyler Fitzgerald, along with pitchers like Andrew Pallante and Matt Brash, were taken in the fourth round. While each of these players has had at least one solid MLB season under their belt, it is nobody that Mets fans should be sweating too much over missing out on.

Obviously, things could still change; a player could have a massive breakout and make us wish the Mets had taken someone else and pursued a different strategy than putting all their effort into Allan. There have only been five full MLB seasons since the 2019 draft, so even the youngest player from the draft class does not have very much experience in Major League Baseball. However, so far, the Mets pouring their resources into Allan hasn’t been as big of a loss as it may seem.