Famous NY Mets draft failure might not have been such a bad thing after all

Back in 2021, the New York Mets appeared to land the steal of the draft. With the tenth overall pick, they selected Kumar Rocker, a right-handed pitcher out of Vanderbilt. Rocker was seen as one of the best players in the draft. He and Jack Leiter made up the dynamic duo at Vandy, which led the Commodores to within a win of a College World Series title. It was shocking that he had fallen to 10th.

The exciting surroundings, however, quickly ran out once the two sides started discussing a contract. At the start of the negotiations, the two sides agreed on a deal that would have netted Rocker a $6 million signing bonus. However, during his physical, the Mets noticed something wrong with his elbow and wanted to re-work the deal to protect themselves. The two sides were never able to agree, and the deadline to sign draft picks passed with the two sides not having an agreement.

At the 2022 draft, Rocker re-entered and was selected 3rd overall by the Texas Rangers. Rocker quickly made his mark in the minors and made the Mets look bad for letting him go. In his 75 2/3 minor league innings, he has a 2.50 ERA with 109 strikeouts to 13 walks and a 0.833 WHIP. But this success has not translated to the majors, and the Mets appear to have finally been vindicated.

It might have been for the best that the Mets did not sign Kumar Rocker in 2021

Over the past two seasons, Rocker has made 14 starts for the Rangers, pitching to a 5.90 ERA over 61 innings with 57 strikeouts, 21 walks, a 1.508 WHIP, and an ERA+ of 64. His most recent start was one of the worst of his career. On Wednesday against the Angels, he went 4 1/3 innings, giving up six earned runs with two strikeouts and a walk. He also gave up three home runs.

A big problem for Rocker is that his fastball has not been effective. Throughout his career, Rocker's ability to throw his 4-seamer and sinker has been inconsistent. But with him throwing fastballs 46.5% of the time, the problems he's had with it are concerning. His 4-seamer has yielded a .368 batting average and a .403 xwOBA, while his sinker has a .292 batting average and a .426 xwOBA. The velocity on his fastballs is also down slightly, which could be why hitters are having so much success.

With the struggles of the Mets pitching staff is currently going through, having a young pitcher struggle in their rotation is the last thing they need. It would exacerbate an already unstable situation. The only value that Rocker would bring to the Mets right now is a potential trade piece. However, with his struggles, they would sell him at his lowest point. While in the moment it was bad to miss out on a prospect like Rocker, it appears that the Mets have dodged a bullet.