Don't be surprised when Luis Garcia pitches well after leaving NY Mets

Luis Garcia's tenure with the New York Mets came to an end in bitter fashion earlier this month, as he was designated for assignment after recording more earned runs (five) than strikeouts (four) in his first six appearances with the club. That sort of start to the year would make it understandable for for fans to assume the 39-year-old veteran is simply no longer up to the task of pitching for a major league ball club, but that didn't stop the Twins from signing him to a minor league deal earlier this week.

That might come as a surprise to Mets fans given his poor performance, but a closer look at Garcia's overall career actually offers some reason for optimism that he could perform quite well in Minnesota. He may not even need to outperform his peripherals like Bryan Hudson has since leaving the Mets for the White Sox. That's because Garcia has often done his best work with teams that don't have serious playoff expectations, especially in recent years.

Last season is a perfect example. Garcia's overall numbers were quite solid, as he posted a 3.42 ERA with a 3.28 FIP in 55 1/3 innings of work. A closer look at his numbers, however, reveals that he actually struggled badly when pitching for the Dodgers. In 28 games with the eventual World Series champs, Garcia was lackluster with a 5.27 ERA. He struck out less than 20% of his opponents and walked 12.7%.

Those are rough numbers, which led the Dodgers to cut him loose in late June. He spent the final three months of the year with the Nationals and Angels, however, and that allowed him to completely turn his season in around. In those lower-pressure environs, Garcia turned in a sterling 1.61 ERA with a 2.96 FIP. He struck out 22.4% of his opponents and walked just 9.3%.

Those are the numbers of a valuable set-up man, but he only got to that level after leaving a Dodgers team with the pressure of being the reigning champs on their shoulders. Garcia had a similar issue in 2024, when he started the season in Anaheim and posted solid numbers for the Angels (3.71 ERA, 3.69 FIP), but imploded after getting traded to the contending Red Sox at the trade deadline. He surrendered 13 runs in 14 appearances as the Red Sox fell out of the race late in the year.

Perhaps Luis Garcia would've succeeded with the Mets if he stuck around longer

It's undeniably that the Twins offer a low-stress environment for players at the moment. They sold off a huge portion of their roster over the summer last year and entered this season projected by Fangraphs to finish the year with just 79 wins, compared to a Mets team that was projected to win 90 games. Minnesota is 12-13, leaving them third in the AL Central and on the outside looking in when it comes to the Wild Card picture.

That should be an environment where Garcia can thrive, if his success in lower-stakes situations holds. With that being said, it's fair to wonder if he may well have found success with the Mets had president of baseball operations David Stearns been just a little more patient with him. Garcia's peripherals with the Mets (including a 2.83 FIP and a 6.5% walk rate) were decent, but the more notable development since his departure is the Mets' considerable struggles.

The Mets DFA'd Garcia on April 12. Since that move, they have plunged themselves into the basement of not only the NL East but the entire league. If the team doesn't right the ship soon, it will be difficult to view them as serious contenders and those lowered expectations may well have helped Garcia succeed in orange and blue despite his shaky start when the pressure was high. That's especially true after the recent loss of Francisco Lindor to the injured list.

Of course, it should be noted that the Mets finally snapped their losing streak and won their first series in weeks by taking two of three from Garcia's new organization this week. Whether the Mets manage to bounce back or not, it seems safe to say that Garcia is in position to enjoy a low-stress stint with the Twins should they call him up from the minors to join their bullpen.

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