A NY Mets debate we never thought we’d have is already over

Baseball is all about making adjustments. Since it's a game of inches, small changes can make a big difference. For pitchers, these alterations are typically mechanical. They may choose to change their arm slot, pitch grips, or position on the rubber to try and get the most out of what they have. Other times, it's simply a change in responsibility. The New York Mets are in this process with one of their players.

For Kodai Senga, moving from the rotation to the bullpen helped turn his season around. Across eight starts, he posted an eye-watering 9.66 ERA, giving up nine home runs in just 31.2 innings. These results necessitated a change in his role and after moving to the bullpen, he posted a much better 1.74 ERA with five saves in August.

He was in the process of earning trust in the closer role and had performed admirably with Devin Williams on the injured list. There were some conversations about a potential battle between the two pitchers for the closer role of the future but September has reminded fans of what they may have already known about Senga.

Kodai Senga's bullpen struggles in September mean he's not ready to be the Mets' closer

Senga has made six total appearances for the team this month and the results have resembled his work in the rotation. An 8.44 ERA with a 14.8% walk rate and a blown save over just 5.1 innings has undone any goodwill he may have accumulated last month.

It now seems clear that Senga's issues are more fundamental than not having the juice to get through an opposing lineup multiple times. This season, he ranks in the first percentile in walk rate (14.7%), barrel rate (13.6%), and ground ball rate (29.6%). He's losing the strike zone and when he does throw strikes, his pitches are leading to tons of hard contact in the air, the exact opposite of what you'd want out of a high-leverage reliever.

Devin Williams hasn't been perfect either. After all, a 4.66 ERA and 1.66 WHIP is hardly the statline of a lockdown closer but at least with Williams, there's more upside to be had. His FIP of 3.10 and xERA of 3.32 indicate that his results on paper may be undervaluing him. Unlike Senga, he's still missing tons of bats, getting batters to chase, and minimizing hard contact.

2026 may have been a lost year but that doesn't mean the front office is going to wait around for a rebuild. The organization has enough talent to return to the playoff picture and is already using the last month to decide who to retain.

This may have been Senga's last chance to prove that he can add value to the Mets and barring a dramatic transformation that produces numbers in 2027 similar to what he did as a rookie, it's difficult to see how the club can remain competitive with him on the roster.

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