Projected contracts for each NY Mets free agent this offseason

There might not be a better place to find information about MLB contracts from the past, present, or future than Spotrac. While imperfect in some cases, their algorithm to predict what the upcoming New York Mets free agents will receive is worth noting as it can help preview who could come back and who has priced themselves out of a reunion.

Spotrac uses something called market value to try and predict what a player could earn. Weighing multiple statistics for hitters and pitchers from the past two seasons, it attempts to use past deals to gain an idea of what future free agents can earn.

How accurate will they be?

Pete Alonso - 6 years, $176.58 million

This is probably the dream deal Pete Alonso is looking for. Comparable to some of the best offensive players in the game, this is the kind of contract that feels like it would have the Mets walking away. Short term was the route they went last year. A deal lasting this long doesn’t seem like it would need to include any options until at least the final year. By then, it would likely be a team option with a hefty enough buyout. If someone is going to pay Alonso this much for this long, it doesn’t feel like it’ll be the Mets.

Edwin Diaz - 4 years, $73.35 million

Edwin Diaz has yet to officially declare himself a free agent. If he was to become available, it looks like he’d get a deal comparable to what he is earning right now with some added time tacked on. The real debate for the Mets is whether or not it’s worth paying a closer this much money. It is. Duh!

Starling Marte - 1 year, $7.8 million

Just a one year deal for the veteran outfielder/DH, it’s less than half what he has been earning in years past. Because he is likely to trend toward being a right-handed DH only useful against left-handed pitchers, we might want to more realistically round this number down unless a team truly believes he’ll have a positive effect on the locker room.

Cedric Mullins - 1 year, $6.7 million

Another one-year deal from the group of Mets free agents, it’s a shame things had to go this way with Cedric Mullins. Consider it a chance to get right. A bad team will probably pay Mullins around this much to make him a trade asset if things go awry.

Ryan Helsley - 3 years, $40.92 million

Mets fans can’t believe it. Three years and $40.92 million? You’ll have to ignore everything he did with New York to give him this much. I’d expect Helsley to get something more in the neighborhood of a pricey one-year deal with a team option for a second at the most. Committing to him for three seasons is foolish.

Jesse Winker - 1 year, $5.5 million

This feels about right. A good locker room guy to have, could the Mets go back to him once more? I wouldn’t touch it. Leave the DH open for half-days or when a veteran is fighting through day-to-day status. Don’t let Jesse Winker clog up the roster.

Gregory Soto - 2 years, $14 million

C’mon now. Two years seems mighty confident in a pitcher who implodes a little too often. Gregory Soto has a lot of talent. He isn’t an A-level reliever. Something lighter or for only one season is all anyone should be willing to do.

Tyler Rogers - 2 years, $22.69 million

No chance the Mets pay Tyler Rogers this much to be their third or fourth best reliever. With A.J. Minter coming back, too much money would be invested in the back or the bullpen with too many other questions likely to arise with those middle arms. A two-year deal isn’t so rough to imagine. Over $10 million feels heavy for a low-strikeout pitcher regardless of how durable he is.

Ryne Stanek - 1 year, $3.9 million

The Mets won’t get fooled again by Ryne Stanek. The $3.9 million projection for a season isn’t too far off base. However, it wouldn’t be such a shock to see it closer to $2 million based on the way he melted late.

Griffin Canning - 1 year, $4.7 million

This one feels a little off. It’s only slightly higher than what the Mets paid him last year coming off of a bad 2024 season. His injury is a big reason as to why the projection only has him at one year and a minimal raise. A team that truly believes in Griffin Canning might go close to double this. At minimum, Canning should hold out for $6 million.