The NY Mets contract situation that hasn't gotten any attention

It is easy to focus on what could go wrong over 162 games. Injuries. Slumps. Bullpen chaos. That is the usual checklist. What rarely gets discussed is what happens if something goes exactly right. The New York Mets have one of those situations sitting in plain sight, and it only becomes a headline if the season plays out the way everyone hopes.

That is the twist. The better things go in one key spot, the more complicated the offseason math becomes. Mets fans are rooting for dominance, and the front office is right there with them. It is like sitting down to a great meal and enjoying every bite. Sooner or later, the bill always comes due.

Mets may face a tough Clay Holmes contract decision after the season

Clay Holmes signed a three-year deal with the Mets that includes a player option in the final season worth $12 million. That number looks reasonable today. It will not look reasonable if he follows up 2025 with another strong year. Player options are built for this exact setup. If Holmes delivers again, he controls the decision next winter, and pitchers in that position rarely pass on a larger payday.

When David Stearns signed Clay Holmes to move into the rotation, the skepticism was understandable. Before 2025, Holmes had made only four starts in the majors, all during the 2018 season. Asking him to handle a full starter’s workload was a gamble. He responded with a 3.53 ERA across 165.2 innings, allowing 150 hits, walking 66, and posting a 114 ERA+.

The walks are the one area that needs tightening, but the overall return was clear. In a season when several starters struggled to pitch deep into games, Holmes worked into the sixth inning or later in 13 of his 31 starts. That consistency helped stabilize stretches of the year when the rotation needed innings more than flash.

There is substance behind those results. Holmes generated a 56% ground ball rate, ranking in the top 6% of Major League Baseball. His changeup and sweeper held hitters to a .204 and .218 BAA, and those two pitches made up 35% of his mix. If his command sharpens even slightly, the production could tick up.

Now, place that version of Holmes into 2026 with Freddy Peralta and Nolan McLean sitting at the top of the rotation. A dependable three or four starter behind them has real value. If he matches last season, the $12 million option becomes an easy decision on his end.

If Holmes runs it back in 2026, the Mets will gladly take every inning and every ground ball. It just means the quiet clause attached to his deal will not stay quiet for long. Success would make the winter a lot more interesting than anyone is admitting right now.