A Mets contract offer to ensure Sean Manaea returns in 2025

The New York Mets will focus on various areas to improve the roster on the way to a 2025 season with high expectations. For the second consecutive offseason, the area that needs the most attention is the team's starting rotation, with the departure of Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, and Sean Manaea.

Manaea is probably the most valuable pitcher this season among the free agents who were with the team last season after the improvement in his delivery after changing his launch angle towards a crossfire throw style similar to that of Chris Sale. After a solid second half of the 2024 season, the Mets would have to go a little far to retain the left-handed pitcher in the short term.

The Mets would have to go up to a fourth guaranteed year to sign Manaea.

Among the industry, it is expected that a reasonable contract for Manaea would be for three guaranteed seasons and some vesting or mutual option for a fourth year. This means that to entertain the interests of the left-handed pitcher the Mets would have to go for a contract that guarantees that fourth season.

Manaea's case is complicated and interesting at the same time. On the one hand, Manaea has the disadvantage that he turns 33 in 2025, so a long contract comes with risks. He has a qualified offer tied to his profile, which limits the interest of teams because they can lose a draft pick for signing him, and finally, an inconsistent track record.

On the other hand, what Manaea demonstrated in 2024, especially in the second half of the season, made him one of the most reliable and efficient pitchers in MLB. The left-hander limited the opposition to a batting average of just .188, with an unbeatable WHIP of 0.94, a better strikeout rate, and an improvement in his command.

Understandably, the shorter a contract for a pitcher like Manaea is, the greater the possibility of increasing his average annual value, otherwise as that contract lengthens and a greater total of money is guaranteed, the lower this AAV would be. In this sense, a contract of $78 million for four guaranteed seasons would be attractive for Manaea who could be with the team until the age of 36 to 37 years for an average annual value close to $20 million.