A rich NY Mets contract offer they can make Michael King to guarantee he leaves the Padres

The Athletic’s Jim Bowden took a look at the top 40 MLB free agents and matched them up with some of the best fits as well as contract predictions. For the New York Mets, there wasn’t a whole lot of matching as Bowden limited most free agents to one or two teams. An obvious candidate to join the Mets, Michael King, lined up with coming to Queens or staying with the San Diego Padres.

King to the Mets is nothing proprietary. Bowden’s more specific take was the contract. At four years and $118 million, it’s a rich contract for a starting pitcher in years and AAV. A $29.5 million average for the 31-year-old with only two seasons of making more than 15 starts, David Stearns would be doing something different to sign him to that type of deal.

Is there something else the Mets could offer him?

A contract offer the Mets can make Michael King if they miss on Tarik Skubal to ensure he leaves the Padres

King has $28 million for 2027 and another $30 million waiting for him in 2028 if he chooses to stay in San Diego. He’ll look to top those totals rather than perform a walk of shame at the end of the MLB offseason. His contract is more complicated than a singular salary. Willing to accept some creativity this past winter, another candle on his birthday cake might not have him as eager to continue to take short-term deals.

There’s a lot of assuming when it comes to players like King. We’d have to expect him to guarantee himself at least three years’ worth of cash just as he did with the Padres last winter. The total and AAV going up is where the Mets will need to stretch the budget.

This type of salary for King makes him less complementary to Tarik Skubal and more of an alternative. With that in mind, we need to prepare for the Mets to pay him a significant number to convince him to come to town. Spotrac has him predicted to make $29.9 million over 5 years. Drawing comparisons to Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease, Zack Wheeler, and Tyler Glasnow, a $30 million AAV is unavoidable unless they go for years over AAV.

If the Mets cut the $118 million across only three years, King becomes nearly a $40 million per year player. It’ll be an insane amount to pay especially when the current payroll penalties punish AAV over total contract value. At 31, King doesn’t need to prioritize immediate cash or years. He could always hit the open market again next year to earn more. To incentivize him, the Mets should keep it simple and go the Bo Bichette route and pay him $35 million in 2027 and 2028 with a player option for $30 million in 2029. If he opts in, King can get the same $30 million salary in 2030.

Now is a good time to be adventurous with the starting pitching. Sean Manaea’s contract isn’t going to eat up payroll forever. The Mets have Nolan McLean and Christian Scott making the equivalent of baseball pennies. If they swing and miss on Skubal, the only harm in paying the cash you would have otherwise given him is perception. Skubal will probably top $40 million per year. A four year offer at $128 million for King with a chance to flee after two seasons seems within the wheelhouse of how the Mets have operated. It won’t hurt them significantly after 2027 either as $35 million is more than covered upon the exit of Manaea and Jorge Polanco in free agency.

The offer to Michael King:
2027 - $35 million
2028 - $35 million
2029 - $30 million (player option)
2030 - $28 million

What the Mets can’t do is not re-invest money. Skubal is the priority. King is a consolation. Realistically, the Mets probably will end up with Skubal and some lesser arms or King and someone in the same place Griffin Canning was prior to 2025. New York has prioritized depth at pitcher and while that remains a goal, fitting too many arms on the roster can become difficult. They can have built-in depth by immediately planning to have Manaea in their bullpen and even remaining open to demoting Zac Thornton if somehow everyone stays healthy.

King definitely doesn’t seem like a $35 million per year pitcher and yet your home’s Zestimate on Zillow feels a bit outlandishly rich in comparison to how it feels sometimes. The Mets have also overpaid Manaea and Polanco, arguably inferior players when they hit the open market. Just because those haven’t worked out doesn’t mean the strategy is a bad one. And in King’s case, it’s not cramming a total salary into one less year.

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