It only took 4.2 innings for NY Mets fans to adjust their Clay Holmes expectations

The New York Mets' offseason strategy, starkly contrasting to their big-spending offensive acquisitions, leaned heavily on high-upside, short-term pitching deals. This approach, reminiscent of the 2024 gambles on Luis Severino and Sean Manaea, which yielded promising results, was amplified this winter.

Instead of chasing marquee free-agent pitchers with long-term commitments, David Stearns opted for reclamation projects and unconventional moves. The most audacious of these was converting established closer Clay Holmes into a starting pitcher. This bold experiment was put to its first real test on Opening Day 2025.

Clay Holmes' starting gamble takes a hard reality check

Fans, understandably, harbored tempered expectations for Holmes. After all, the right-hander hadn't started a game since his 2018 MLB debut season, where he posted a 6.84 ERA in just four starts.

Stearns, however, saw potential in Holmes' raw stuff and arsenal, believing a conversion was viable. The Opening Day matchup against the Houston Astros, unfortunately, didn't immediately validate this vision. Holmes' debut lasted just 4.2 innings, yielding two earned runs on five hits, striking out four, but also walking four.

The immediate reaction from the Mets faithful was a mix of concern and skepticism. Holmes struggled with command, particularly his fastball, and allowed several hard-hit balls. The control and command necessary for a starter appeared elusive.

However, a deeper dive into the metrics offered a glimmer of hope. Holmes' sweeper, a pitch he located within the zone more than 50% of the time, showed above-average "Stuff+." His highly touted, new kick changeup, though, was conspicuously absent, a detail that warrants further observation. More importantly, it was his first start in almost seven years. Nerves and adrenaline, common in such scenarios, can disrupt even the most seasoned pitchers. Fans tend to extrapolate too much from small sample sizes.

Holmes did show flashes of brilliance, generating seven swings and misses and throwing 89 pitches, a testament to his stamina, considering his recent bullpen usage. The initial high expectations are being recalibrated, shifting towards a more realistic, median outlook.

This adjustment, however, should alleviate the pressure on Holmes, allowing him to settle into his new role. The spring training glimpses of his potential, where he posted a 0.93 ERA with 23 strikeouts in 19.1 innings, still linger, suggesting that the experiment might just have legs after all.