Spotrac's Clay Holmes contract prediction fits the NY Mets under one condition

Reuniting with Clay Holmes is very much a possibility for the New York Mets this winter. They paid him, essentially, a top relief pitcher’s salary for two seasons with a player option on a third year. He should, absolutely, look to capitalize on his success with the Mets and any more he may have as a member of the Chicago Cubs and get paid a lot more.

Spotrac has already started to evaluate some of the market value of upcoming free agents. They haven’t done much other than a couple of free agent starting pitchers. This includes Holmes who has a market value of $22.9 million.

Spotrac projects Holmes to get a three-year deal. We can round the numbers up or down. It ends up as about three years and $68-70 million overall. It’s less than what the Mets gave Sean Manaea. Holmes is, without a doubt, someone for the Mets to consider again.

Clay Holmes is probably best for the Mets rotation if they look to make another change, too

Something about simply having Holmes join the Mets rotation and keep the rest intact feels off. He’d come in alongside Nolan McLean, Christian Scott, Manaea, and Zac Thornton…or maybe another young kid like Jonah Tong. Whatever it happens to be, there’s a little too much of a repeat.

Holmes might suit the Mets best as a planned alternative or backup to signing Tarik Skubal. His market value is at $42 million per year. Don’t look so shocked when it’s more.

What the Mets were severely lacking in 2026 was a consistent ace. Holmes had the best numbers, posting a 2.39 ERA in 9 starts. The early injury erased him from putting together a far more notable season in New York. With the Cubs, he has had 3 starts of 6+ with 0 runs allowed mixed between a poor outing to begin his tenure and his worst of all, 8 runs in 4.1 innings. There was also one game of allowing a single run in 5.1 innings of work.

Market value is determined by measuring his stats against others who recently were signed. Three comparisons made by Spotrac were $75 million deals over three seasons. Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, and Sonny Gray are the trio. They also tossed in Seth Lugo on his two-year, $46 million deal as another comparison.

The timing of the CBA throws a curveball into a lot of what we can expect with free agency as some players will inevitably get less than expected regardless of the outcome. Holmes for three years and anywhere from $68-80 (salaries are always going up) falls within the range David Stearns likes to keep it.

This is the one immovable rock for Stearns since coming to the Mets. Manaea’s deal is the largest he has added and that became a questionable one almost immediately. Holmes definitely fits but the feeling over trying relatively the same thing over again with the 2027 Mets feels gloomy. They’re already going to need to count on bounce back seasons from so many others. Revisiting Holmes is a concept that can work, but it’ll need to include some other major shifts within the starting rotation. Otherwise, the Mets are stuck in limbo.

Holmes and another starting pitcher addition can work. And considering he’ll cost around half of Skubal on a yearly basis, the Mets can definitely afford it. Interestingly, Freddy Peralta with a projection of $20 million AAV (but for four years somehow) matches. That road is one the Mets will refuse to go down.

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