How the NY Mets should handle Clay Holmes amid contract extension negotiations

Clay Holmes hasn’t pitched since May 15th. The reliever turned starter is on his way back with rehab beginning on Saturday July 18th with weather permitting. The timing is imperative because as a New York Mets player who’ll become a free agent, the idea of trading him is something everyone has thought about.

Holmes has a $12 million player option for next season that could double as a free agent. His effectiveness as a starting pitcher this year and for the majority of last year turned him from a guy fans wanted shoved into the bullpen to a guy worthy of an extension.

SNY’s Chelsea Janes says negotiations are underway for an extension. How should the Mets play this one out?

The Mets have a lot of options when it comes to how to handle Clay Holmes

An attitude of “hey, we want to give you a chance to win” and trading Holmes before August 3 isn’t a bad plan. The Mets must know the man. This is the game they’re playing here with him. Holmes doesn’t have an obligation to get traded and re-sign with the Mets because they had enough faith to turn him into a starter and give him generational wealth. However, he might feel he does. The player and team appear to be in a good place together.

The human part of contract negotiations is the variable fans won’t know in full and can only make assumptions about. Who is Holmes, how does he feel, and is New York somewhere he wants to remain?

If everything was guaranteed, the Mets gain far more by trading Holmes. The prospect return will need to be more than they could possibly earn from draft pick compensation for losing him to another team. Holmes is the ideal type of candidate for the qualifying offer. A good year but missed time in 2026 won’t damage his market. It’s safe to give him a one-year deal. It’s estimated this will cost $23.1 million in 2027. For a guy who’ll pitch next year at 34, that’s close to ideal to balance peak ability and not worry too much about father time catching up.

Failing to trade Holmes by the deadline puts a little more pressure on the player than the team to get something done. Players with the QO penalty attached to them have a notoriously weakened market with some teams passing over completely because of the lost draft picks. Teams would have to choose between Holmes or another player. Thus far, only the Los Angeles Dodgers with their signings of Edwin Diaz and Kyle Tucker have ever added two qualifying rejectors in one offseason.

The Mets seem destined to gain something out of Holmes whether it’s trade assets, a draft pick, or a return for another two or three years, a likely estimate of how long of a contract he’d have to receive to accept a deal from the Mets.

Easily the best case scenario is for Holmes to get traded and return to the Mets as a free agent. That rarely seems to happen. If the Mets truly want him, it’s probably best to not play games. Prospects sure are nice but so is a winning major league player in 2027 you can count on.

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