A NY Mets-Blue Jays trade involving a pair of change of scenery candidates

New York Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga is reportedly garnering trade interest among other teams. While the Mets aren’t actively shopping the right-hander, it’s possible they at least entertain the idea of trading him this offseason. One of the many teams that could be inquiring about Senga’s availability in trade is the 2025 American League Pennant winners, the Toronto Blue Jays. If the Jays and Mets meet to hammer out a trade involving Senga, this mock swap is one they should consider.

The Mets signed Senga out of Japan on a five-year deal worth $75 million. Senga hit the ground running, putting up a 2.98 ERA, striking out nearly 30% of opponents with a 29.1% K%, and a 0.92 HR/9 ratio. Senga’s 11.1% walk rate was about the only blemish on his impressive rookie season. That was good enough for Senga to make the All-Star game, finish runner-up in National League Rookie of the Year voting, and even receive some down-ballot Cy Young votes.

Senga was obviously projected to play a significant role in the Mets’ 2024 pitching staff, but multiple injuries derailed his sophomore season. He made only one start during the regular season and pitched 5.1 more innings in the Postseason. Senga then looked on his way to being a Comeback Player of the Year candidate in 2025, as he owned a 1.39 ERA, 3.21 FIP, and 1.13 WHIP through the All-Star break. His K% may have dropped to 23.8%, but he still carried a strong 0.46 HR/9, and his 10.6% walk rate was an improvement from 2023.

But his final eight starts of the season couldn’t have gone worse. He had a 6.56 ERA, 6.11 FIP, and 1.71 WHIP over 35.2 innings. Home runs became a massive issue for Senga, with a 2.02 HR/9 ratio. His K% dropped further to 20.5%, and his walk rate worsened to 12.9%. Senga performed so badly that the Mets sent him to Triple-A to work on things at the end of August. The biggest red flag in his game was his Stuff+ going from 101 to just 93. That second half, along with his multitude of injuries, has left question marks about his future in New York. He is set to earn $15 million in 2026 and 2027. He has a team option for 2028 worth $15 million, but it can become a condition option if he lands on the injured list for 130+ consecutive days with an elbow injury.

In return, the Mets would be getting relief pitcher Yariel Rodriguez. The Cuban right-hander had a strong tenure in Japan before signing with the Toronto Blue Jays during the 2023-2024 offseason. Although Rodriguez’s final season in the NPB was as a reliever, the Jays attempted to make him a starting pitcher, which is what he started his career out as in Cuba and in his first few years in Japan. However, the results were nothing to write home about, with a 4.47 ERA, 4.34 FIP, and 1.32 WHIP over 86.2 innings. He had a respectable 23.1% K%, but a below-average 10.9% walk rate, and an unimpressive 1.14 HR/9 ratio.

This mock trade would help the Mets add some bullpen depth and clear a roster spot for more starting pitching.

The Jays moved Rodriguez back to the bullpen for the majority of 2025, only giving him a single start. The results were better, given his 3.08 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, but he still carried a similar 4.40 FIP. He was giving up fewer home runs, with a 0.99 HR/9, but his K% dropped to 22.1%, and his walk rate rose to 11.4%. On the plus side, his Stuff+ went from just 94 in 2024 as a starter to 101 as a reliever. Rodriguez is slated to make $6.6 million in 2026 and $7.6 million in 2027. He also has a buyout for 2028 worth $1.6 million, with a team option valued at $11.6 million, a player option at $7.6 million, with the team option potentially increasing by $2.8 million depending on how many innings he will have thrown in his MLB career by the end of the 2027 campaign.

Giving up on Senga may seem premature, but there are reasons why the Mets would trade him, aside from his performance and drop in pitch quality. Trading Senga frees up both a rotation spot and some payroll space. The Mets will reportedly look to add one or two frontline starting pitchers this offseason. Rookie Nolan McLean all but cemented himself in the rotation after his historic start to his career during September. Fellow rookies Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat will likely be given a chance to secure a rotation spot, alongside David Peterson and Sean Manaea. Removing Senga from the equation eliminates one tough choice the Mets would have to make with their rotation if they follow through with the promise of one or two top-of-the-rotation arms.

The Mets could also use some bullpen depth. MLB.com’s Mets depth chart consists of just five relief pitchers. A.J. Minter will likely return next season, and Clay Holmes could move back to the pen, but the Mets need more than just that to improve the bullpen. Rodriguez was outstanding as a reliever in Japan. Returning him to more of a traditional single-inning relief role could help him take another step forward in the Major Leagues.

The Blue Jays, meanwhile, need starting pitching help. Former Mets starters Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer are free agents. Their starters as a whole did not perform well this past season either. They ranked 20th in ERA at 4.34, 24th in FIP at 4.46, and 23rd in fWAR at +8.5. The Blue Jays are also a team willing to spend, given the free agents they added last year and the high-profile names they have been linked to.

The Jays also did not seem very confident in Rodriguez this season. His leverage index after the All-Star Break was only 0.88. That was only the fifth highest among Blue Jays relievers after the break who threw at least 20 innings. The Blue Jays used him sparingly during their AL Pennant run, not appearing in any Wild Card games, just four times in total between the ALDS and ALCS, and he was left off their World Series roster entirely.

If the Mets move Senga, it should be in a deal like this. They can immediately improve another part of their pitching staff and can free up both roster and payroll to add a top-flight starting pitcher this offseason. The Blue Jays also match up well in this trade, given their current needs, and will be on the lookout for starting pitching help.