NY Mets might benefit from a surprising market involving Emilio Pagan

Free agency loves to dangle the shiny toys, but the real edge comes from understanding which moves make sense for a roster already juggling big financial commitments. The New York Mets are trying to strengthen the bullpen in a way that complements those realities, which means the hunt for a reliable late-inning arm has shifted into a search for efficiency. It is simply the kind of offseason where every dollar needs a purpose.

Emilio Pagan enters that conversation with a profile that stands out for a different reason. He carries the reputation of a closer, yet his projected contract lands in a range that keeps him accessible for teams that see him in a setup lane. That combination of experience and affordability does not show up often, and it gives him a lane into more than one contender’s bullpen design.

Emilio Pagan’s expected price point reveals a setup path the Mets can afford

The nine-year veteran enters free agency with the kind of season that usually pushes a pitcher into the luxury aisle. Pagan closed games for Cincinnati and did it with authority, picking up 32 saves while carving out a 2.88 ERA across 68.2 innings. The strikeout total reached 81, the hit column barely cracked 40, and the entire package looked like something that should spike a price tag long before teams hit the negotiation table.

What elevated the year even further was how he did it. Pagan leaned heavily on his four-seamer and splitter, throwing them more than 80 percent of the time, and both pitches held opponents under a .175 batting average. His expected batting average sat at .183, which put him in the top one percent of the league. That is elite territory, the kind reserved for pitchers who usually ask for closer money because their stuff leaves very few hitters with anything pleasant to say.

The underlying data matched the results. His chase rate, strikeout rate, whiff rate, and hard-hit percentage all ranked within the top quarter of Major League Baseball. Stack those numbers up next to the high-end closers, and Pagan fits right in. He delivered impact without the volatility, the kind that normally commands a premium in a market where leverage innings cost more by the year.

Yet this winter tells a different financial story. Pagan’s projected contract is worth roughly $11 million a year. Raisel Iglesias just signed for sixteen million. Edwin Diaz is valued at over $20 million. Devin Williams is expected to land somewhere between $15 to $18 million. Pagan’s number is noticeably lower, especially for someone coming off a season that mirrors the production of pitchers earning far more.

That projected range changes how teams can view him, and it opens a path for the Mets that would not exist at a higher figure. They can pursue a proven closer while still adding Pagan as a setup force, something few pitchers with his résumé ever make possible. The numbers he put up match the top tier. The price point gives the Mets room to treat him as the piece before the ninth inning instead of the one protecting it.