5 best Mets starting pitcher free agent targets who won't cost $100 million

The New York Mets finished the season on a high note after their long run in the postseason in a year where expectations were exceeded. Now, the team sets its sights on free agency to fill the gaps of the multiple players who are free agents and try to achieve a place in the World Series in 2025.

One of the areas of greatest work for David Stearns and the Mets baseball operations department is the starting rotation, for the second consecutive offseason. After the success of last season and the words of Stearns in a previous intervention, it is sensible to think that the team's approach will be similar to that shown in the last season in the search for arms with less financial commitment with upside and the ability to adjust to the new philosophy pitching of the organization. In this sense, these would be the best five options for the team in free agency that won't cost $100 million.

5) Shinnosuke Ogasawara

Shinnosuke Ogasawara requested to be posted by his team, the Chunichi Dragons of Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball, which was granted by his organization. After determining the exact date of the posting, the MLB teams have 45 days of negotiation to reach an agreement with Ogasawara and his team within the rules of the Japanese baseball posting system that requires coverage of a fee towards the team depending on the amount and duration of the futures contract. Otherwise, Ogasawara should return to his team by 2025.

Oagasawara isn't really the most prominent pitcher from Japan this offseason, that honor goes to former Sawamura Award winner (Japan's Cy Young equivalent), Tomoyoki Sugano. However, Ogasawara has aspects that could make some MLB teams more attractive.

The Japanese left-hander is a young man who is also a veteran in his league. At only 27 years old, he already has nine years of experience in the NPB where he has a career ERA of 3.62 in 951.1 innings pitched.

Ogasawara is not a hard-throwing pitcher so his stuff does not generate too much swing and miss but he has an elite command where he posted a walk rate of just 3.7% last season, a profile similar to that of Shota Imanaga only with a level of dominance on the smaller mound. Ogasawara could sometimes be seen as a Thrift Shop version of Imanaga, but the truth is that with his level of command and ability to induce weak contact from his opponents, he is an ideal candidate because he would carry a much smaller contract in money and duration than Imanaga.

4) Walker Buehler

Walker Buehler was an ace for the Los Angeles Dodgers rotation for almost four seasons until an injury in 2022 led him to require the second Tommy John surgery of his career and a repair to his flexor tendon. After his return in 2024, Buehler was not even a shadow of what he showed us in the first years of his young MLB career.

Over 16 starts Buehler finished 2024 with a 5.34 ERA with a 1.55 WHIP in 75.1 innings pitched. During that period, the Dodgers right-hander had the worst K/9 ratio of his career, one of the worst BB/9, and his worst HR/9 since his debut.

However, in the postseason, Buehler showed a better level on the mound with an increase in swing and miss in his pitches and decreasing his BABIP considerably, finishing with a 3.60 ERA in 15 innings pitched. Likewise, advanced metrics show good velocity of his pitches, maintaining a fastball at 95 mph and a whiff% level of his pitches similar to those of previous seasons.

Buehler needs an adjustment to his pitching repertoire. Buehler's fastball is his most used pitch almost 30% of the time but it has a very high batting average and expected slugging, unlike pitches like his cutter which hit him for an xBA of .218 and an xSLG of just .330. This indicates that with an adjustment in the use of his arsenal, Buehler could be a bargain in this market, especially because he will carry a contract similar to that of Luis Severino last season of one year and about 14 to 15 million to return to increase its value, which would make sense in this team philosophy.

3) Luis Severino

Trying to retain Luis Severino appears to be a no-brainer for the Mets organization. The Dominican right-hander had a good season with the team in 2024, making his contract worth more than $14,250,000.

In the scenario where Severino is not inclined to accept the qualifying offer extended by the Mets worth $21.5 million, the team should try to make a multi-year offer to the pitcher who served as a stabilizer of the Mets' rotation thanks to his ability to go deep in games and limit your opponents' power contact. Indeed, Severino was efficient on the mound last season, managing to pitch 31 outings, where he accumulated 182 innings pitched, the sixth most in the National League in 2024.

Likewise, Severino showed significant improvements in the type of contact generated by opponents, decreasing his hard-hit contact by almost 10 percentage points compared to his 2023 season. His four-seam fastball, which had been a headache in 2023, improved in terms of swing and miss and hard hit contact compared to the previous season due to a better location of this pitch, and in the same way he changed the use of his pitch arsenal by incorporating the use of the sweeper, a pitch that allowed him to keep the opposition to a batting average of .133 with a slugging average of just .238.

According to projections, Severino would be signing a three- to four-year contract at an average annual value of $17 to 18 million. At the estimated value, the return of this signing would be important for a rotation that does not have consistent pitchers with a track record at the moment to battle for a postseason spot in 2025.

2) Sean Manaea

After Kodai Senga's injury at the beginning of the 2024 season, the Mets were left without an ace in their rotation, which raised doubts about the team's chances of reaching the postseason in that season. Surprisingly, Sean Manaea came out as the leader of the rotation thanks to a change in his throwing mechanics, decreasing the angle of his arm in his throwing mechanics, somehow imitating Chris Sale in a type of crossfire throw.

Since Manaea's adjustment to his pitching, the left-hander managed to limit the opposition to a batting average of just .188, with an unbeatable WHIP of 0.94 and a BABIP of .216. Likewise, Manaea increased his strikeout percentage by two percentage points and decreased his walk percentage by almost four points, all this also limiting the hard-hit contact of his opponents by 3 percentage points.

The efficiency shown by Manaea, his ability to respond when needed, and his work throughout the year make it unquestionable how important it would be for the Mets to have his services again. The most complicated aspect with Manaea is the type of contract he would demand after what was shown in 2024.

Manaea would begin 2025 at 33 years of age, thus limiting his ability to obtain a long-term contract, which would incline him to seek an average annual value of $20 million or more per year. In a scenario where Manaea demands a contract of this type for three seasons with a possible vesting option for a fourth year, it would be an ideal scenario for the Mets to stabilize Manaea at the top of the rotation for next season along with Senga.