5 best Mets starting pitcher free agent targets who won't cost $100 million

The New York Mets finished the season on a high note after their long run in the postseason in a year where expectations were exceeded. Now, the team sets its sights on free agency to fill the gaps of the multiple players who are free agents and try to achieve a place in the World Series in 2025.

One of the areas of greatest work for David Stearns and the Mets baseball operations department is the starting rotation, for the second consecutive offseason. After the success of last season and the words of Stearns in a previous intervention, it is sensible to think that the team's approach will be similar to that shown in the last season in the search for arms with less financial commitment with upside and the ability to adjust to the new philosophy pitching of the organization. In this sense, these would be the best five options for the team in free agency that won't cost $100 million.

5) Shinnosuke Ogasawara

Shinnosuke Ogasawara requested to be posted by his team, the Chunichi Dragons of Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball, which was granted by his organization. After determining the exact date of the posting, the MLB teams have 45 days of negotiation to reach an agreement with Ogasawara and his team within the rules of the Japanese baseball posting system that requires coverage of a fee towards the team depending on the amount and duration of the futures contract. Otherwise, Ogasawara should return to his team by 2025.

Oagasawara isn't really the most prominent pitcher from Japan this offseason, that honor goes to former Sawamura Award winner (Japan's Cy Young equivalent), Tomoyoki Sugano. However, Ogasawara has aspects that could make some MLB teams more attractive.

The Japanese left-hander is a young man who is also a veteran in his league. At only 27 years old, he already has nine years of experience in the NPB where he has a career ERA of 3.62 in 951.1 innings pitched.

Ogasawara is not a hard-throwing pitcher so his stuff does not generate too much swing and miss but he has an elite command where he posted a walk rate of just 3.7% last season, a profile similar to that of Shota Imanaga only with a level of dominance on the smaller mound. Ogasawara could sometimes be seen as a Thrift Shop version of Imanaga, but the truth is that with his level of command and ability to induce weak contact from his opponents, he is an ideal candidate because he would carry a much smaller contract in money and duration than Imanaga.

4) Walker Buehler

Walker Buehler was an ace for the Los Angeles Dodgers rotation for almost four seasons until an injury in 2022 led him to require the second Tommy John surgery of his career and a repair to his flexor tendon. After his return in 2024, Buehler was not even a shadow of what he showed us in the first years of his young MLB career.

Over 16 starts Buehler finished 2024 with a 5.34 ERA with a 1.55 WHIP in 75.1 innings pitched. During that period, the Dodgers right-hander had the worst K/9 ratio of his career, one of the worst BB/9, and his worst HR/9 since his debut.

However, in the postseason, Buehler showed a better level on the mound with an increase in swing and miss in his pitches and decreasing his BABIP considerably, finishing with a 3.60 ERA in 15 innings pitched. Likewise, advanced metrics show good velocity of his pitches, maintaining a fastball at 95 mph and a whiff% level of his pitches similar to those of previous seasons.

Buehler needs an adjustment to his pitching repertoire. Buehler's fastball is his most used pitch almost 30% of the time but it has a very high batting average and expected slugging, unlike pitches like his cutter which hit him for an xBA of .218 and an xSLG of just .330. This indicates that with an adjustment in the use of his arsenal, Buehler could be a bargain in this market, especially because he will carry a contract similar to that of Luis Severino last season of one year and about 14 to 15 million to return to increase its value, which would make sense in this team philosophy.

2) Sean Manaea

After Kodai Senga's injury at the beginning of the 2024 season, the Mets were left without an ace in their rotation, which raised doubts about the team's chances of reaching the postseason in that season. Surprisingly, Sean Manaea came out as the leader of the rotation thanks to a change in his throwing mechanics, decreasing the angle of his arm in his throwing mechanics, somehow imitating Chris Sale in a type of crossfire throw.

Since Manaea's adjustment to his pitching, the left-hander managed to limit the opposition to a batting average of just .188, with an unbeatable WHIP of 0.94 and a BABIP of .216. Likewise, Manaea increased his strikeout percentage by two percentage points and decreased his walk percentage by almost four points, all this also limiting the hard-hit contact of his opponents by 3 percentage points.

The efficiency shown by Manaea, his ability to respond when needed, and his work throughout the year make it unquestionable how important it would be for the Mets to have his services again. The most complicated aspect with Manaea is the type of contract he would demand after what was shown in 2024.

Manaea would begin 2025 at 33 years of age, thus limiting his ability to obtain a long-term contract, which would incline him to seek an average annual value of $20 million or more per year. In a scenario where Manaea demands a contract of this type for three seasons with a possible vesting option for a fourth year, it would be an ideal scenario for the Mets to stabilize Manaea at the top of the rotation for next season along with Senga.

1) Nathan Eovaldi

In a David Stearns system where pitchers with short contracts and modest pay are sought for a potential upside in their delivery as a pitcher, Nathan Eovaldi emerges as an ideal option for the Mets. The right-hander has been one of the most consistent pitchers in recent years due to his command and is one of the few pitchers at a level close to the top of this free agency class who does not have the restriction of a qualified offer tied to him, which is a positive aspect in the development of any team's farm system due to draft picks compensation tied to the QO.

Eovaldi's health has always been a concern. However, he achieved more than 170 innings in 2024, which puts him in a good position compared to the league average. Likewise, Eovaldi improved his command by reducing his walks compared to 2023, something that had been a negative issue in his performance, and improved his ability to produce swings misses, and strikeouts.

Eovaldi's fastball remains a high-velocity pitch averaging 95.4 mph last season, and his splitter continues to induce an elite swing-and-miss rate of around 37%. Three of this pitcher's four most-used pitches allowed less than a .400 xSLG and averaged an opposition batting average below .210.

The veteran came out of a $20 million player option for the 2025 season to get a similar amount of money in annual terms but with the possibility of getting a multi-year contract. Eovaldi will turn 35 next February, so his aspirations could reach a contract for two seasons and $21 to 22 million per year, which would be ideal for the Mets in this system of getting quality pitchers with the least financial commitment possible, especially with the rise of injuries in starting pitchers and the limitations of innings to pitch for young pitchers.