4 Mets prospects the team could lose in the Rule 5 Draft next month

4) JT Schwartz

JT Schwartz was another 2021 draft pick, this time being their fourth-round selection. Schwartz opened the year up with Double-A Binghamton and put up some decent numbers. His first 262 plate appearances of the season yielded a .295/.408/.424 triple-slash. Although Schwartz did not hit for much power with just five home runs and a .124 isolated slugging percentage, Schwartz racked up a ton of hits and walks with a 14.9% BB% while rarely striking out (15.6% K%). Schwartz’s Double-A tenure ended with a .386 wOBA and 144 wRC+.

That strong performance earned Schwartz a promotion to Triple-A Syracuse. But his numbers took a sharp downturn. In 178 plate appearances, Schwartz only batted .219/.287/.381 with a .298 wOBA and 71 wRC+. Schwartz hit for more pop, going yard the same amount of times as he did at Double-A, but in nearly 100 fewer plate appearances, leading to a .163 ISO. He also continued to strike out at a low 16.3% rate, but his walk rate plummeted to just 5.6%.

Schwartz is a hit-over-power batter. His whiff rate was below 20% at Triple-A, clocking in at 18.6%. But he only had an 87.7 MPH exit velocity, along with a poor 5.3% barrel rate. His tenure at Triple-A is the first time he has put up an ISO above .135. Schwartz did have an interesting change in batted ball rates. His flyball percentage at Double-A was only 41.1%. But when he reached Triple-A, it shot up to over 50% (51.5%, to be exact). A change to a more line-drive-focused approach may do Schwartz more good.

The Mets likely won’t have to worry about Schwartz getting taken. First basemen are rarely taken in the Major League phase of the Rule 5 draft. The last three 1B’s to get selected are Ryan Noda (2023 by the Oakland Athletics), Mike Ford (2017 by the Seattle Mariners), and Ji-Man Choi (2015 by the LA Angels). Even if Schwartz is taken, the Mets likely won’t sweat it.