4 Mets prospects the team could lose in the Rule 5 Draft next month

Tuesday evening was the deadline to add players and finalize the 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. Minor leaguers who were signed as 19 or older four or more years ago and players who signed at 18 or younger five or more years ago are eligible for the taking. The Rule 5 draft will occur during the Winter Meetings and is scheduled for December 11th.

The New York Mets, however, did not add any players to their 40-man roster to protect them from selection. That leaves some prospects out in the open and able to be selected by teams with room on their active roster. Four prospects the Mets left unprotected may head into the New Year with a different team than the Mets.

1) Dom Hamel

Dom Hamel is the highest-ranked prospect the Mets left available for the taking. A third-round pick by the Mets in 2021, Hamel is ranked as the team’s 15th-best prospect on MLB Pipeline and 11th-best on Baseball America. Hamel is coming off a rough season where he had a 6.79 ERA, 5.95 FIP, and 1.75 WHIP across 124.1 innings at Triple-A Syracuse. Hamel struggled to limit walks and home runs, with a 13.2% BB% and 1.66 HR/9 rate. His strikeout rate also wasn’t great, sitting at 21.3%.

But the right-hander is only a season removed from a promising campaign. During his tenure at Double-A Binghamton, Hamel pitched to the tune of a 3.85 ERA, 3.21 FIP, and 1.27 WHIP in 124 innings of work. Walks were far less frequent, as his BB% was 9.2%. Home runs were also a non-issue, with a 0.87 HR/9 rate. On top of that, he struck out a ton of opponents with a 30.1% K%.

Hamel has a five-pitch mix. His four-seamer only sits at 93 MPH but has above average vertical movement at 13.8 inches. He also throws three breaking offerings. The best is his low-80s sweeper with 43.5 inches of vertical/12.6 inches of horizontal break. Hamel will also toss an upper-80s cutter, along with a mid-70s curveball. Finally, there’s his primary off-speed pitch, a mid-80s change-up.

Hamel is coming off a rough season, and his control has always been a question mark. But we’re still talking about a top-15 prospect in the Mets’ system up for the taking. This is a player the Mets should consider trading. There is a decent chance that Hamel gets taken in the draft, and while it may be selling low on him, it’s better to get something than watch him get taken by another team for nothing.

2) Mike Vasil

Dom Hamel wasn’t the only notable prospect the Mets left unprotected. They also left right-hander Mike Vasil off their 40-man roster. Vasil was also a 2021 draft pick, selected in the eighth round. Baseball America pins him as the Mets’ 12th-best prospect, while Pipeline is less bullish, putting him at a still noteworthy 18th in the Mets’ system. 

Vasil put up a horrid 6.04 ERA, 5.75 FIP, and 1.54 WHIP in 134 innings at Syracuse. He saw his strikeout rate fall below 20%, clocking in at just 18.6%. It’s not as if Vasil offset this lowly K% with an elite walk rate, as his BB% was 8.6%. But Vasil was prone to the long ball. The right-hander put up a 1.66 HR/9 rate.

Vasil may have struggled badly in 2024, but he was putting up some respectable numbers between 2022 and 2023. This two-year stretch saw him post a 4.24 ERA, 3.88 FIP, and 1.17 WHIP. Vasil walked 8.9% of opponents but had a much better 27.4% K%. Home runs were also much less common when he was on the mound, as his HR/9 was 1.01.

Vasil has a wide variety of pitches at his disposal. His four-seamer displayed average attributes all around, sitting 93 MPH with 15.6/6.9 inches of vertical/horizontal break. His two-seamer has similar velo but with more break (25.2/15.1 inches of vertical/horizontal movement). Vasil also tosses a mid/upper-80s cutter with good vertical drop at 30.1 inches. He then rounds his arsenal with a low-80s sweeper and change-up.

While Vasil’s season was poor, another team could see Vasil as a low-risk/high-reward prospect. This is another player the Mets should consider moving via trade prior to the draft. Even if they can only net something like a low-level prospect for Vasil, it is better to lose him for something rather than lose him for the small amount of cash they receive if a team takes him in the draft. 

4) JT Schwartz

JT Schwartz was another 2021 draft pick, this time being their fourth-round selection. Schwartz opened the year up with Double-A Binghamton and put up some decent numbers. His first 262 plate appearances of the season yielded a .295/.408/.424 triple-slash. Although Schwartz did not hit for much power with just five home runs and a .124 isolated slugging percentage, Schwartz racked up a ton of hits and walks with a 14.9% BB% while rarely striking out (15.6% K%). Schwartz’s Double-A tenure ended with a .386 wOBA and 144 wRC+.

That strong performance earned Schwartz a promotion to Triple-A Syracuse. But his numbers took a sharp downturn. In 178 plate appearances, Schwartz only batted .219/.287/.381 with a .298 wOBA and 71 wRC+. Schwartz hit for more pop, going yard the same amount of times as he did at Double-A, but in nearly 100 fewer plate appearances, leading to a .163 ISO. He also continued to strike out at a low 16.3% rate, but his walk rate plummeted to just 5.6%.

Schwartz is a hit-over-power batter. His whiff rate was below 20% at Triple-A, clocking in at 18.6%. But he only had an 87.7 MPH exit velocity, along with a poor 5.3% barrel rate. His tenure at Triple-A is the first time he has put up an ISO above .135. Schwartz did have an interesting change in batted ball rates. His flyball percentage at Double-A was only 41.1%. But when he reached Triple-A, it shot up to over 50% (51.5%, to be exact). A change to a more line-drive-focused approach may do Schwartz more good.

The Mets likely won’t have to worry about Schwartz getting taken. First basemen are rarely taken in the Major League phase of the Rule 5 draft. The last three 1B’s to get selected are Ryan Noda (2023 by the Oakland Athletics), Mike Ford (2017 by the Seattle Mariners), and Ji-Man Choi (2015 by the LA Angels). Even if Schwartz is taken, the Mets likely won’t sweat it.