4 Mets prospects the team could lose in the Rule 5 Draft next month

2) Mike Vasil

Dom Hamel wasn’t the only notable prospect the Mets left unprotected. They also left right-hander Mike Vasil off their 40-man roster. Vasil was also a 2021 draft pick, selected in the eighth round. Baseball America pins him as the Mets’ 12th-best prospect, while Pipeline is less bullish, putting him at a still noteworthy 18th in the Mets’ system. 

Vasil put up a horrid 6.04 ERA, 5.75 FIP, and 1.54 WHIP in 134 innings at Syracuse. He saw his strikeout rate fall below 20%, clocking in at just 18.6%. It’s not as if Vasil offset this lowly K% with an elite walk rate, as his BB% was 8.6%. But Vasil was prone to the long ball. The right-hander put up a 1.66 HR/9 rate.

Vasil may have struggled badly in 2024, but he was putting up some respectable numbers between 2022 and 2023. This two-year stretch saw him post a 4.24 ERA, 3.88 FIP, and 1.17 WHIP. Vasil walked 8.9% of opponents but had a much better 27.4% K%. Home runs were also much less common when he was on the mound, as his HR/9 was 1.01.

Vasil has a wide variety of pitches at his disposal. His four-seamer displayed average attributes all around, sitting 93 MPH with 15.6/6.9 inches of vertical/horizontal break. His two-seamer has similar velo but with more break (25.2/15.1 inches of vertical/horizontal movement). Vasil also tosses a mid/upper-80s cutter with good vertical drop at 30.1 inches. He then rounds his arsenal with a low-80s sweeper and change-up.

While Vasil’s season was poor, another team could see Vasil as a low-risk/high-reward prospect. This is another player the Mets should consider moving via trade prior to the draft. Even if they can only net something like a low-level prospect for Vasil, it is better to lose him for something rather than lose him for the small amount of cash they receive if a team takes him in the draft. 

3) Luke Ritter

Luke Ritter is a utility prospect who the Mets drafted in the 7th round of the 2019 draft. Ritter is coming off his second strong season in the Mets’ system. He hit .257/.369/.480 this past year with 26 home runs. This marks the second year in a row Ritter has topped 25 dingers. That led to an isolated slugging percentage of .223. Ritter drew walks at a healthy 12.9% rate, but the downside is he struck out in 30.7% of his trips to the plate.

Ritter’s peripherals are what you’d expect from a high-strikeout/big power hitter. Ritter had a whiff rate of 35.7%, but when he did make contact, it was typically loud contact. The slugger had an 89.7 MPH exit velocity and a 12.7% barrel rate. Among Triple-A batters with at least 400 plate appearances, Ritter had the 6th-best barrel percentage but also the 9th-highest swing-and-miss rate.

Ritter saw time all over the field in 2024. He is primarily an infielder and spent a lot of time between first, second, and third base. But he also logged 233 innings in left field. It was the first time since his days at Wichita State he started multiple games in the outfield. Ritter’s arm is about average, and he’s athletic enough to play wherever he is needed.

A team may see Ritter as a low-risk pick-up, given his power potential and versatility. But it’s also unlikely that the soon-to-be 28-year-old is a high-priority target for a team looking to take a player in the Rule 5 draft. Teams like to take players with upside, and a high strikeout slugger who is approaching 30 years of age is not going to be on many team’s radars. In the event that a team does take Ritter, the Mets likely are not going to worry too much.

4) JT Schwartz

JT Schwartz was another 2021 draft pick, this time being their fourth-round selection. Schwartz opened the year up with Double-A Binghamton and put up some decent numbers. His first 262 plate appearances of the season yielded a .295/.408/.424 triple-slash. Although Schwartz did not hit for much power with just five home runs and a .124 isolated slugging percentage, Schwartz racked up a ton of hits and walks with a 14.9% BB% while rarely striking out (15.6% K%). Schwartz’s Double-A tenure ended with a .386 wOBA and 144 wRC+.

That strong performance earned Schwartz a promotion to Triple-A Syracuse. But his numbers took a sharp downturn. In 178 plate appearances, Schwartz only batted .219/.287/.381 with a .298 wOBA and 71 wRC+. Schwartz hit for more pop, going yard the same amount of times as he did at Double-A, but in nearly 100 fewer plate appearances, leading to a .163 ISO. He also continued to strike out at a low 16.3% rate, but his walk rate plummeted to just 5.6%.

Schwartz is a hit-over-power batter. His whiff rate was below 20% at Triple-A, clocking in at 18.6%. But he only had an 87.7 MPH exit velocity, along with a poor 5.3% barrel rate. His tenure at Triple-A is the first time he has put up an ISO above .135. Schwartz did have an interesting change in batted ball rates. His flyball percentage at Double-A was only 41.1%. But when he reached Triple-A, it shot up to over 50% (51.5%, to be exact). A change to a more line-drive-focused approach may do Schwartz more good.

The Mets likely won’t have to worry about Schwartz getting taken. First basemen are rarely taken in the Major League phase of the Rule 5 draft. The last three 1B’s to get selected are Ryan Noda (2023 by the Oakland Athletics), Mike Ford (2017 by the Seattle Mariners), and Ji-Man Choi (2015 by the LA Angels). Even if Schwartz is taken, the Mets likely won’t sweat it.