3 NY Mets players whose early success proves Jeremy Hefner is a wizard

3) Griffin Canning

When the Mets signed Griffin Canning, expectations were relatively low. Not only did Canning struggle badly in 2024, posting both an ERA and FIP over 5.00 at 5.19 and 5.26, respectively, but he never had a truly dominant season as a starting pitcher. His best campaign came in 2023, when he put up a 4.32 ERA, 4.29 FIP, and 1.24 WHIP in 127 innings of work. Although this came with some solid peripherals, including a 25.9% K% and a 6.7% walk rate, Canning couldn’t prevent the long ball, as he had a 1.56 HR/9, 91 MPH exit velocity, and 9.8% barrel rate.

While he was originally projected to play a 6th starter role, seeing time both out of the rotation and potentially out of the bullpen, injuries to 2024 standout Sean Manaea, fellow offseason signee Frankie Montas, and trade deadline acquisition Paul Blackburn gave Canning a chance for a starting pitching role. He’s since run away with a starting pitching role after dominating in spring training.

Canning has tossed 47.1 innings, working to a 2.47 ERA, 3.94 FIP, and 1.29 WHIP. He has rebounded in terms of walk rate, handing out a free pass to 8.6% of opponents with a K% of 23.2%. Home runs have been far less of an issue this year than in previous seasons, with a 1.14 HR/9 ratio. While his 91.9 MPH exit velocity is still in the bottom seventh percentile, his 6% barrel rate is in the 71st percentile. That’s mainly because his launch angle went from around 15.2 degrees with the Angels, to only eight degrees since the Mets acquired him.

Canning has seen his stuff rebound massively with the Mets. Last season, he sat with an 86 Stuff+, but is now at 96. Canning isn’t just having a rebound season with the Mets; he’s having the best year of his career by far. A rebound in stuff and far more ground balls isn’t just luck. The Mets helped Canning make the adjustments he needed, throwing his slider more frequently than any other pitch, and it’s worked tremendously for Canning.