3 NY Mets players who will be better in 2025, 2 who will be worse

David Peterson’s 2.90 ERA in 2024 will be too tall of an order for him to replicate in 2025.

Much of the Mets starting pitching story last season revolved around David Stearns' additions in Luis Severino and Sean Manaea performing ahead of expectations in a season where the rotation was hit with injuries. What David Peterson did last season was perhaps the most overlooked individual performance by a Met last season.

After missing the first two months with a torn labrum, he made 21 starts, going 10-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 121 innings, shoring up the back of the rotation. He gave the Mets needed length to put the pressure off the bullpen.

The analytics, however, suggest that Peterson's success was more of him being lucky than good. His expected ERA was 4.59, his hard-hit rate was 42.7 percent, and his strikeout rate got cut from 26.0 percent in 2023 to just 19.8 percent in 2024, which actually made the low ERA more impressive.

As someone with a career 4.08 FIP and 3.9 walks per nine innings, it is hard to see David Peterson replicate his 2024 success in 2025.

He hasn't pitched like a frontline starter enough for fans to raise preseason expectations for him and conventional wisdom says he is a league average starting pitcher.