Keeping Kodai Senga or not is up for debate. He has ace-like stuff. He just didn’t finish looking like himself last season. The merits of whether to move on from him as a member of the New York Mets starting staff is up to you. If he’s sticking around as he apparently hopes to do, the Mets have some other big decisions to make.
With Senga back, this is how they can approach the rotation while improving themselves, too.
Three ways the Mets can improve the starting rotation with Kodai Senga sticking around
1) Keep everyone while adding a frontline starter, loser moves to the bullpen, expect someone to get hurt
Whether it’s Tarik Skubal, Freddy Peralta, or anyone else, the Mets need to add to their starting pitching staff. They have depth. Reliability is the problem.
In this scenario, all of the starting pitching options battle it out through spring training. The loser moves to the bullpen to become a long man/piggyback rider. The Mets experimented with this late in September with some mixed results.
Most likely, the “loser” won’t even get named in spring training. The Mets have gone years without a preseason injury to their starting rotation. Someone is inevitably going to get hurt and having a surplus of starters available is going to help. It would allow players like Brandon Sproat and Jonah Tong more time to develop in the minor leagues. At least one should still be around even if they were to add Skubal via trade.
Full Plan: Trade for Tarik Skubal and keep everyone else around, figure it out and if no one is hurt find a last second trade before Opening Day
2) Trade someone not named Kodai Senga for your starting pitcher addition or (something else)
The Mets do have other trade candidates in their rotation. Here’s the problem: no one makes quite as much sense as subtracting Senga.
David Peterson is affordable and unless you’re swapping him for a more proven starter, it doesn’t make much sense to send him away with only one year left. It could work. The same goes for Clay Holmes. He has trade value on a reasonable contract. Any team who needs him just needs to understand where his limitations are.
Finally, there’s Sean Manaea. He’s not getting traded because the Mets apparently bid against themselves last offseason. The contract is ridiculously bad-looking at the moment. Nolan McLean isn’t going anywhere leaving the Mets with fascinating trade candidates still led by Senga. The idea of a strict six-man rotation is unfathomable for a couple of reasons. Financially, it burdens you. The roster construction is damaged by having one less bullpen arm available. While not impossible, with Peterson perhaps being in a package to acquire a more expensive pitcher on a team looking to dump some salary, it just doesn’t seem as realistic.
Full Plan: Trade for Tarik Skubal and use your available bullpen spot on someone more ready to handle the role, consider your minor leaguers your depth
3) Go full bore by trading for a starting pitcher, sign one in free agency, trade away a piece, and demote another to a bullpen role
There really aren’t a whole lot of chairs to shuffle on the deck. No one is getting released. No one can be demoted to the minor leagues from the five-some the Mets have currently slated. What they could do, to really up the ante, is combine both ideas.
The thought of trading for a starting pitcher and signing one in free agency might be a step too far, especially if Senga isn’t the one getting dealt. But as far as improving the rotation and giving the team a new look, shifting one player into a different role while subtracting another does make the Mets a lot better.
Let’s say the Mets sign Tatsuya Imai (the lack of qualifying offer is enticing) and then trade for Peralta. That adds two names to a group of seven with only five regular spots available. Peterson is traded away for a minor leaguer (or two) with control. Manaea loses his starting gig with a poor spring and works as an interchangeable piece to occasionally start and maybe carry the load behind Holmes.
Flexibility will be required for all Mets starting pitchers next season regardless of the way things shape together. No doubt, we’ll see at least one interchangeable piece bounce between roles.
Full Plan: Trade for Tarik Skubal, sign Tatsuya Imai, trade David Peterson for two prospects, move the weakest leak from the spring training battle to the bullpen
