3 NY Mets backup plans if Clay Holmes fails as a starting pitcher

3) Tylor Megill

This could be Tylor Megill’s last chance to establish himself as a Major League starter. From his debut in 2021 through 2023, Megill put up just a 4.72 ERA, 4.65 FIP, and 1.42 WHIP. He struck out 22.3% of opponents with an 8.6% walk rate but struggled mightily with home runs. His HR/9 clocked in at 1.50. But while Megill missed a good portion of the 2024 season due to injury, he is coming off his strongest stretch of Major League playing time yet.

Megill pitched 78 innings but had a 4.04 ERA, 3.55 FIP, and 1.31 WHIP. He put up the best single-season K% of his career thus far, 27%, and his best HR/9 rate, 0.92. But he had a sub-par 9.5% walk rate. Megill also clocked in with an 88.9 MPH exit velocity and 8.6% barrel rate, both of which were worse than average.

Megill’s numbers under the hood are promising as well. Along with a sub-4.00 FIP, he also had a solid 3.79 xFIP and 3.81 SIERA. Stuff+, a stat on a scale similar to OPS+ or wRC+ where 100 is average and is based on how good a pitcher’s offerings are, based on velo, movement, arm angle/extension, and more, had Megill at 108. Not only was that a career-best for Megill, but the best among Mets pitchers who made double-digit starts in 2024 (Megill made 15 starts in 16 games).

Megill’s chances to establish himself as a big league rotation arm are running on fumes. But his 2024 season could give him one more chance to prove himself as a starter. His solid underlying numbers are a step in the right direction and could make him one of the better options for the Mets to replace Holmes in the rotation if he happens to struggle.