3 big NY Mets X-factors heading into Opening Day that could make or break the season

The term X-factor is quite subjective and when you think about it deeply, anyone on the New York Mets roster could be considered on. Several individuals will determine more than others how far the team can go in the coming season. Then there are those who’ll contribute far less and either get the club over the finish line or stop them short of making the playoffs altogether.

We know we can rely on Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, and even Pete Alonso to some extent. They aren’t worth questioning. They’ll do what they do best within a wide range. What about those who could go in other extreme directions?

The Mets are counting on some events to occur in 2025 to ensure it isn’t a lost season. As such, these are probably the biggest X-factors we’re looking at heading into Opening Day.

1) The health of Kodai Senga

You don’t need to be a speed reader to get through what Kodai Senga did in 2024. One regular season start and two abbreviated appearances in the postseason was all he was able to muster. We knew when he first signed ahead of the 2023 season there were some injury concerns. After a fully healthy debut season with the Mets, we saw the darker side of falling in love with a pitcher. They just don’t stay on the field like they used to.

We’d all love to believe that if he’s healthy Senga will indeed post similar numbers to the 2023 performance. A performance that landed him seventh in the Cy Young vote, his one mishap was walking too many batters. It seemed to get better as the season went along. It’s a part of his game we’ll live with if it means sub-3.00 ERA campaigns and a whole lot of ghost forks making hitters wake up screaming in the middle of the night.

Senga’s health is paramount to the Mets having a good season. Their rotation is the biggest area of concern as they’ve yet again decided to take some short-term risks. Remove Senga and those concerns only grow.

Meanwhile, we’ll have our own questions about his health and exactly what he’ll offer. A full season essentially washed away, an ace-like Senga makes the Mets even stronger contenders. An absent or lesser year from him and we’re going to need to wave goodbye to some important prospects at the trade deadline if the team has serious thoughts of a championship.