3 adjustments the Mets need to make before a pivotal NLDS Game 3
Let's keep this magical run going.
I was three years old when the New York Mets won the World Series in 1986. I remember the Subway Series with the Yankees in 2000, and I was in Citi Field when Matt Harvey pitched the game of his life, until it wasn't, and the Royals celebrated their first championship in 30 years.
I've loved the Mets as long as I can remember, so believe me that I don't say this lightly β This has been the most exciting week of Mets baseball that I've ever experienced. The only thing that comes close, in my opinion, is when Daniel Murphy transformed into the modern day Babe Ruth to carry the Mets to the National League pennant in 2015, but even Murph's magic can't compare to the continued late-game heroics we've seen lately.
I drove down to Atlanta last Monday to see the Amazins come back from 3-0 down in a winner-gets-in game against the Braves. Even the 6-3 lead they built wasn't enough, as the Braves stormed back to go back ahead 7-6. Then Francisco Lindor justified all the much-deserved MVP talk by hitting a ninth-inning homer to send the Mets to the postseason.
As we've all seen, the Mets weren't just happy to be there. Despite zero days rest, they rallied to take Game 1 against Milwaukee, and even though they gave up a late lead to lose Game 2 and trailed 2-0 in the ninth inning against Brewers closer extraordinaire Devin Williams, they kept fighting. Lindor led off with a hit. Brandon Nimmo followed. And then Pete Alonso mushed, with apologies to Todd Pratt, the biggest home run in franchise history.
Why am I recapping the last week of Mets baseball? Because it's honestly been one of the greatest (if also the most stressful) weeks of my life as a sports fan. This is a time that I and thousands of Mets fans will be replaying and retelling for years to come.
I don't want it to end, and I know the Mets can beat the Phillies. I saw it in Game 1, when they overcame an all-time gem from former Met Zack Wheeler to obliterate a good Philly bullpen for six runs in two innings. I saw it in Game 2, when Brandon Nimmo smoked one over the right field wall to take the lead back after the Phillies rallied to tie the game. I saw it when Mark Vientos hit a towering homer in the ninth to shock Matt Strahm and tie the game.
On a macro level, you have to love what this team is doing. The Mets are never out of it, and the way they can lock in at the end of games has reduced good bullpens to dust. As exciting as these late-game rallies have been, though, they wouldn't be possible without the unsung work being done by the pitching staff. Luis Severino pitched a tremendous game his last time out. David Peterson kept the Mets within a run when Wheeler was dealing. Jose Quintana was incredible against the Brewers. The list goes on and on.
The Phillies aren't going to back down though, as we saw when they erased deficits two different times and then Nick Castellanos won the game with two outs in the ninth. Make no mistake, this is a war, and with only three games at most remaining in this series, every little detail is going to matter.
It's crunch time now, and the good news is that the Mets finally get to play at home for the first time in over two weeks. The atmosphere at Citi Field is going to be flat-out bonkers, and for a team that has played nothing but big games lately, I think they'll be ready to rise to the occasion. Here are some small adjustments that can put them over the top.
Adjustment No. 1: Swing more at the first pitch
It's tough to quibble with what the Mets have been doing at the plate. They've been unbelievably clutch, and their hitting with runners on base has been otherworldly. Early in games though, they keep falling behind, and I believe that part of the reason why is they've been too passive on the first pitch. I can't count how many times a Mets batter took a four-seamer right down the middle to start an at-bat, then chased a breaking ball in the dirt or a fastball at the letters to strike out.
Normally I'm a big proponent of taking the first pitch, especially early in games when you want to get a good look at the opposing pitcher. In Game 3, though, the Phillies are sending out Aaron Nola, and although Nola is a very good pitcher, I believe the Mets, who are very familiar with his work, have the advantage.
Nola has faced the Mets a whopping 28 times in his 10-year major league career, and although he has a 10-9 career record and a 3.46 ERA in those starts, both of which are pretty solid, the Mets have had his number lately. Four players that figure to be in Carlos Mendoza's starting lineup have a career OPS over 1.000 against Nola, and the former LSU pitcher has just a 1-6 record in the last three seasons against the Mets.
The Mets touched Nola up for six earned runs in 4.1 innings when they last met less than a month ago, with Francisco Alvarez and Brandon Nimmo homering off of him. That will surely be on Nola's mind, as will this little fact:
The Mets have been too passive early in games, but they need to attack Nola in this one. With nine days rest, he's unlikely to have his best stuff, and with an electric Citi Field crowd to rattle him, I can see him trying to settle his nerves by grooving a few fastballs to try and get ahead in the count. The Mets need to jump on them.
Adjustment No. 2: Stick with the hot pitcher
Baseball managers tend to get nervous in the postseason. It's understandable, as there's little margin for error. When the prospect of being sent home is on the table, it's easy to talk yourself into a fresh arm from the bullpen being the best option, but when it comes to Carlos Mendoza, I would urge him to take a deep breath and trust his guys.
Sean Manaea is getting the ball in Game 3, and he's been the very definition of reliable, especially since the All-Star Break. Not only has Manaea been effective, he's eaten up innings, with 10 of his last 12 regular season starts lasting at least 6.2 innings.
Mendoza pulled Manaea after five good innings in the Wild Card Round against Milwaukee, but he had more to give. Has the Mets bullpen been great lately? Yes. Do I trust it to hold on to a one-run lead with four innings to go? That's another matter.
If Manaea has his good stuff, which he often has lately, Mendoza needs to give him a longer leash. Edwin Diaz has thrown 130 pitches in the last eight days, and though Mets fans have to be proud of his warrior mentality, having a fatigued closer trying to get critical outs against a lineup as dangerous as Philadelphia's isn't a recipe for success.
There's a flip side to Mendoza being a little trigger happy on the pitching changes, and that's that he's been a little too willing to trust unproven guys in big spots. I love Tylor Megill, I really do, and his resurgence late in the season has been great to see, but letting him pitch the ninth inning in a tied playoff game at Citizens Bank Park is like throwing a new, untrained gladiator into the Colosseum to face Maximus Decimus Meridius.
Ryne Stanek has been outstanding lately. Ride the hot hand and put him in a big spot. Adam Ottavino has been, too. Together, those two have combined for one run allowed in their last eight appearances, and both of them are a lot more used to coming out of the pen than Megill.
Carlos Mendoza has done an objectively fantastic job with this team, and I'll ride with any decisions he makes the rest of the way. My only plea is to trust the hot pitchers on his team. They'll get the job done.
Adjustment No. 3: Be more aggressive on the basepaths
The final adjustment I'd advocate for is a more aggressive baserunning approach. We all saw how the Brewers ran the Mets ragged last round, and while the Mets don't have the same team speed as Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio and the rest of the Brewers, they have a lineup that can do a lot more than play station-to-station.
Francisco Lindor, Harrison Bader, Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo, Tyrone Taylor and Jose Iglesias combined for 94 stolen bases in the regular season. In five playoff games, that group has two.
Runs are hard to come by in the playoffs, especially against a pitching staff as talented as Philly's. The Mets need to exert maximum pressure on the basepaths to manufacture some runs, whether that means stealing or even employing a hit-and-run on the rare occasion. The Mets have shown an increased ability to go the other way and shoot singles through the hole between the first and second basemen. That's the perfect hit-and-run play, and guys like Iglesias, Marte, Bader, Nimmo and Lindor have the bat control to get it done.
J.T. Realmuto has been great at throwing out would-be base thieves during his career, but he's slipped the past two years, with opposing runners boasting a 79% success rate. That's been in line with Nola's 75% rate allowed in that same time frame, which is no surprise since Realmuto typically catches for him.
It might sound oversimplistic, but the team that's less afraid is going to win this series. Will the Phillies' confidence after stealing Game 2 carry over into Game 3, or will the Mets prove their resiliency once again? If we see them attacking the first pitch, being courageous enough to let Manaea pitch deep into the game, and running wild on the bases, I think we'll have our answer.