Adjustment No. 1: Swing more at the first pitch
It's tough to quibble with what the Mets have been doing at the plate. They've been unbelievably clutch, and their hitting with runners on base has been otherworldly. Early in games though, they keep falling behind, and I believe that part of the reason why is they've been too passive on the first pitch. I can't count how many times a Mets batter took a four-seamer right down the middle to start an at-bat, then chased a breaking ball in the dirt or a fastball at the letters to strike out.
Normally I'm a big proponent of taking the first pitch, especially early in games when you want to get a good look at the opposing pitcher. In Game 3, though, the Phillies are sending out Aaron Nola, and although Nola is a very good pitcher, I believe the Mets, who are very familiar with his work, have the advantage.
Nola has faced the Mets a whopping 28 times in his 10-year major league career, and although he has a 10-9 career record and a 3.46 ERA in those starts, both of which are pretty solid, the Mets have had his number lately. Four players that figure to be in Carlos Mendoza's starting lineup have a career OPS over 1.000 against Nola, and the former LSU pitcher has just a 1-6 record in the last three seasons against the Mets.
The Mets touched Nola up for six earned runs in 4.1 innings when they last met less than a month ago, with Francisco Alvarez and Brandon Nimmo homering off of him. That will surely be on Nola's mind, as will this little fact:
The Mets have been too passive early in games, but they need to attack Nola in this one. With nine days rest, he's unlikely to have his best stuff, and with an electric Citi Field crowd to rattle him, I can see him trying to settle his nerves by grooving a few fastballs to try and get ahead in the count. The Mets need to jump on them.