Two truths about Sean Manaea’s 2025 NY Mets season

The return of Sean Manaea to the 2025 New York Mets roster didn’t quite work the way we wanted it to. The preseason injury that limited him to a single relief appearance in the first half set him back further than anyone would’ve guessed.

It was inarguably a bad year for him, but we can come away with two strong truths about what we can expect from him in 2026.

It’s true, Sean Manaea was one of the unluckiest pitchers in MLB

According to Baseball Savant, Manaea was one of the unluckiest pitchers in terms of expected ERA and what he actually posted. His 5.64 ERA versus an expected ERA of 3.96 was the 13th largest in terms of the results actually being higher.

Manaea didn’t walk many batters and he struck out a ton. His 1.8 BB/9 was a welcomed addition for a Mets pitching staff that struggled to find the zone. His 11.1 K/9 was the best he has posted in a career that seems to continually add more punchouts to his stat line each season. Too many hits and home runs were what eventually sunk those numbers. His home run rate nearly doubled from 1 per 9 in 2024 to 1.9 per 9 in 2025.

Just because a pitcher is unlucky doesn’t mean he won’t continue to yield the same ugly results. In particular with Manaea, the other truth about him suggests his struggles weren’t due to breaking a mirror.

It’s true, Sean Manaea didn’t prove he is still a capable starting pitcher

In 12 starts, Manaea never completed 6 innings. It’s blasphemous. A 6.52 ERA in the 4th inning, 7.36 ERA in the 5th inning, and 17.18 ERA in the 6th made it clear he was missing the bare minimum requirement for a starter in his arsenal.

It was in the 51-75 pitch range when Manaea posted his worst numbers. A .364/.417/.667 slash line against him on those pitches which generally line up with innings 4-6 add to the concerns about how many innings he can ever reasonably give the Mets.

The third time through is when all bets were off for Manaea. Although he faced just 26 hitters for a third time in a game last year, they managed to rip him apart for a .426/.500/.571 slash line. The problems seemed to start around the bottom of the order, too. Eighth and ninth place hitters batted over .300 against him. For whatever reason, the bottom of the order gave him the greatest fits. The likeliest conclusion: he’s good for facing about 24 hitters a game which just isn’t reasonable for a starting pitcher.

The Mets’ attempt to piggyback him with Clay Holmes late in the season had mixed results. It seemed like the Mets had no clue how to handle Manaea and were ready to give anything a try.

Manaea is one of the greatest puzzles newly hired pitching coach Justin Willard will have to figure out. The injury that delayed his debut is an easy excuse. Is it good enough?